(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 4
From
=?UTF-8?B?TGzDqW8=?=@24:150/2 to
rec.sport.soccer on Tue Nov 17 19:06:19 2020
None of these games - not even Brasil's - was on Brazilian TV tonight, so I
had to rely on matchtrackers to follow the games. Not much to say on each, then, apart from noticing how very wrong most of my predictions turned out
to be :-)
Venezuela 2-1 Chile
Venezuela scores their first goals and win in this cycle at Estadio Olimpico
de Caracas. Mago scored first for the hosts, Vidal equalised soon and, on
the 80th minute, Rondon scored the Vinotinto's winner.
Ecuador 6-1 Colombia
Ok, so Ecuador really is on a roll. I thought this was going to be a close
one at La Casa Blanca, Quito, but goals by Arboleda, Mena, Estrada, Arreaga, Plata and Estupi|#an demolished Colombia, whose consolation goal came via a penalty scored by James Rodriguez. This was the most lopsided score in the history of this match, and the first time Ecuador ever scored six on a
World Cup Qualifier. Colombia, having gone 1-9 in these two rounds, is on unrecognizable form.
Uruguay 0-2 Brasil
I got to watch the second half of this one. A solid win for Brasil at El Centen|irio, goals by Arthur and Richarlison in the first half. Uruguay hit the bar twice, but soon had to chase the result and Brasil dealt with it without much of a scare. Uruguay missed Suarez, who tested positive for
Covid, and Cavani couldn't deliver, even getting himself a deserved red
card in the 68th minute for a hard foul on Richarlison.
This is Brasil's third win in a row as visitor in Montevideo. Also, Brasil's last loss to Uruguay was in a 2001 qualifier. Since then, it's been 11 games (seven in the WCQ, two in Copa America, one in the Confederations Cup and one friendly, four of these games in Brasil, four in Uruguay and three in neutral territory), with six wins for Brasil and five draws.
Paraguay 2-2 Bolivia
On a VAR intensive game at Defensores del Chaco, Asunci||n, Bolivia bravely pulls out a tie and a rare away point against Paraguay. The guaran|!s
scored first, but Bolivia pulled off the comeback before the break. In the second half Paraguay pressed on and found the equaliser. Paraguay is one
of the three remaining unbeaten teams and joined the top-4, but they really wanted to have done better on this one.
Peru 0-2 Argentina
A solid, unspectacular win for Argentina at Estadio Nacional de Lima, with goals by Nicolas Gonzalez and Lautaro Martinez separating the two teams. Argentina compensates for the home hiccup against Paraguay and trails Brasil
by two points, while Peru, with a very poor four rounds so far, is second to last, ahead of Bolivia only on goal difference.
Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]
1 Brasil 12 4 4 0 0 12 2 10+
2 Argentina 10 4 3 1 0 6 2 4+
3 Ecuador 9 4 3 0 1 13 6 7+
4 Paraguay 6 4 1 3 0 6 5 1+
--------------------------------------
4 Uruguay 6 4 2 0 2 7 7 0
--------------------------------------
6 Chile 4 4 1 1 2 6 6 0
7 Colombia 4 4 1 1 2 5 11 5-
8 Venezuela 3 4 1 0 3 2 6 4-
9 Peru 1 4 0 1 3 4 10 6-
10 Bolivia 1 4 0 1 3 5 12 7-
Next round to be played in March 25th, 2021. In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
Colombia - Brasil (1-1, n/a, 0-0, 1-2, 0-0, n/a)
Well, it's a long way until March, so Colombia has enough time to try to figure out what went so terribly wrong for them in these last two rounds. Brasil sleepwalked through three easy games but played solidly when the stakes were raised. It's probably wiser to make a prediction when the games are closer,
but here's a shot anyway: Brasil to win 2-1 (on soph terms, Colombia 0.30,
draw 0.25, Brasil 0.45).
Venezuela - Ecuador (1-3, 1-1, 3-1, 3-1, 1-2, 1-1)
Ecuador began this cycle with a coach that didn't even know all of its players at matchday 1 and not showing much promise, given previous form. But since then, it's been three stylish wins and they're the best scoring team in the competition so far. Venezuela, on the other hand, has been struggling. If both carry on this form, Ecuador are the clear favorites. I call a 2-1 win for La Tri
(soph terms, Venezuela 0.30, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.40).
Bolivia - Peru (0-3*, 1-1, 3-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0)
*was Bolivia 2-0, awarded to Peru due to Bolivia fielding an inelegible player Peru had a bit of a tough schedule thus far, having already played Brasil and Argentina (although at home). They don't travel well to La Paz, though. Bolivia has been poor as usual, but this is a chance for them to find one of their sparse WCQ wins. I think Bolivia wins 2-0 (soph terms, Bolivia 0.50, draw 0.30, Peru 0.20).
Argentina - Uruguay (1-0, 3-0, 2-1, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0)
Another chapter of the Rioplatense derby, the original Superclasico. Argentina has been uninspiring, but they are getting the results, while Uruguay seems to be oscillating a bit? The lack of a crowd makes it a bit harder to call, but
in Argentina, the hosts tend to win. I say Argentina wins a close 1-0 (soph terms,
Argentina 0.45, draw 0.30, Uruguay 0.25).
Chile - Paraguay (0-3, 2-0, 0-3, 0-1, 3-1, 2-1)
Up for grabs I guess? Chile seems to be the better team, but not by that much, and this Paraguayan team seems to know how to play visitor (better than playing
as hosts, in fact). I'll call it a 1-1 draw (soph terms, slight edge to the hosts:
Chile 0.35, draw 0.35, Paraguay 0.30).
--
Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
From
=?UTF-8?B?TGzDqW8=?=@24:150/2 to
rec.sport.soccer on Sun Nov 22 14:11:57 2020
Real Mardin escreveu:
Great write up as always.
Thanks!
May I enquire why Brazil's game was not broadcast on Brazilian tv? Seems crazy for such a football mad nation.
It is. I don't recall any other Brasil WCQ game not shown on TV on my lifetime. Least of all a derby.
It has to do with TV rights. Brazilian TV Globo has a deal with Mediapro, owner of the WCQ TV rights, to broadcast the home games of Brasil and Argentina (indeed I got to watch both Argentinian home games vs Ecuador and Paraguay). For the rest, including Brazilian away games, they have to negotiate on a game-by-game basis.
Mediapro's strategy seems to be to charge a high price for individual games, to try to lead an eventual buyer to purchase a full package, which would be less pricey. Indeed, that's what Globo themselves do with pay-per-view games on the Brazilian league - a monthly subscription to get all of your team's games is cheaper than buying any particular individual match. The problem
here is that Globo doesn't think it's worth the investment to buy games that don't involve Brasil or Argentina, and even these teams' away games seem to be too expensive to their liking.
For the previous away round, against Peru, Globo indeed didn't buy the
rights either and the game wasn't going to be shown. About one hour from kickoff CBF bought these rights and repassed to TV Brasil, a state channel. They didn't do it again for the Uruguay game, though, since they weren't
happy with the financial return.
So, apart from pay-per-view or internet options, we will not get games in which Brasil or Argentina aren't hosts, and we'll also probably miss a share
of Brasil's away games as well.
Which is too bad, IMHO. We used to get all the games, the Brasil ones (home
and away) on free-to-air TV and the others on cable. Given Conmebol's usual scheduling of two games on a day, three on the other, on most rounds it was actually possible to watch the full matchday. The economic crisis caused by the pandemic and the accomodating of new broadcasting platforms over the internet changed all that. Here's hoping that, at some point in the future, we get back to the previous situation of most or all games being more easily available.
--
Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)