On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 4:12:14 PM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Saturday, August 28, 2021 at 2:47:19 AM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
Let's see what the ranking looks like one round before the end of the group stages.
And now that the dust has (all but) settled, including the various bonus points:
Season 2021/22
After MD5
1 England 13.571 (7/7 still in Europe)
All four CL teams already qualified for the knock-out stages means a lot of bonus points.
2 Netherlands 12.600 (5/5)
Amazing season by the Eredivisie. Ajax are in brilliant form, and the others have been
taking advantage of the Europa Conference League to the fullest. They might well start
next season in fifth, ahead of both France and Portugal.
3 France 11.916 (6/6)
A bit surprisingly, already their best season in the last five years.
4 Italy 10.285 (7/7)
5 Germany 10.214 (7/7)
Somewhat average from both.
6 Spain 9.285 (7/7)
And that's almost poor by them.
7 Portugal 7.916 (4/6)
OKish, but currently not enough to stave off the challenge from the Netherlands, or catch up
with France. As expected, the elimination of Pa|oos and Santa Clara in the ECL Qualifiers
cost them.
8 Austria 7.000 (4/5)
As in the last two seasons, it's not Salzburg, but LASK (while sitting just one point from the
bottom in the Austrian Bundesliga) who have at the moment collected the most points for
us (in a ridiculously easy ECL group). Salzburg blew two chances already to qualify for the
CL Round of 16 and collect a full extra point, and in their current poor form, and without
spectators, their 'final' on the last matchday - the third in three years - against Sevilla doesn't
exactly fill me with confidence.
Still, sitting in eighth not just in the overall ranking, but also for this season isn't too shabby,
and as high as we can aim for anyway.
9 Switzerland 6.750 (2/4)
Basel about as expected, Young Boys a bit better than expected.
10 Denmark 6.400 (4/5)
A great matchday 5 in which they collected 1.6 points (including bonuses) means they're
suddenly up there, and what's more all four of their teams still have the chance to play in
Europe in spring.
After MD 6
1 Netherlands 14.200 (5/5 still in Europe)
Not much to say, except congrats. Vitesse (crucial goal conceded today against Mura in the
81st minute) might still get ousted by Spurs (for whom now any win over Rennes would suffice),
and PSV dropped down to join their compatriots in the KNVB Conference League, but other than
that a close to perfect European autumn.
Total results in the group stages: 19-7-4, 13 bonus points
2 England 14.142 (7/7)
3 CL group winners, only Leicester didn't fulfill expectations and dropped down into the ECL.
A Spurs win over Rennes would push the PL ahead of the Eredivisie again. It's only a matter
of time anyway.
Group stage record: 25-7-9 with 41 bonus points, by far the best one overall.
3 France 14.083 (6/6)
Best season for French clubs in a long time. They did better only in 2016/17 (Monaco in
the CL semifinals and Lyon in the EL semifinals) and in 2009/10 (Lyon and Bordeaux in
the CL quarterfinals where they played each other). Only blemish is Marseille dropping
down to the ECL.
Group stage record: 18-14-3, 30 bonus points
4 Spain 12.142 (7/7)
Started with five teams in the CL, and 'only' brought three of them to the Round of 16.
Barcelona (getting seven points with just two goals scored is quite remarkable), Sevilla,
Real Sociedad, and Betis might well tear it up now in the Europa League though. Group stage record: 18-10-14, 39 bonus points
5 Germany 11.785 (5/7)
The highest-ranked league to have already lost teams (Wolfsburg and Union). As with Spain,
a lot will depend on how serious their four representatives will take the Europa League.
Group stage record: 21-8-13 and 31 bonus points. That's second best behind the PL, but the
results weren't too perfectly balanced between Bayern and the others.
6 Italy 11.714 (6/7)
A bit uncharacteristically for Serie A they post a perfect qualification record in the EL and
ECL, but lost two CL teams (with Milan gone altogether).
Group stage record: 19-10-13, 32 bonus points
7 Portugal 9.583 (4/6)
The Big Four (including Braga) did a decent job, but as their direct competitors France and
Netherlands have been firing on all cylinders the lack of depth behind those teams makes
itself felt. Group stage record: 9-5-10, 24 bonus points
8 Austria 9.400 (3/5)
Two wins per matchday was my lofty hope (not expectation) after the draw, and that's
exactly what the four Austrian representatives accomplished. Furthermore, three teams
will continue to play in Europe after the winter break, something that hasn't happened since
the 1983/84 season. Of course, that wouldn't have happened without the Conference League,
but as the Netherlands show you have to take those opportunities when they present
themselves.
Group stage record: 10-4-10, 11 bonus points
9 Serbia 8.000 (2/4)
But who needs four teams in the group stages anyway? Two are easily sufficient! (dividing
by four helps)
Group stage record: 5-4-3, 6 bonus points
10 Switzerland 7.750 (1/4)
Group stage record: 5-4-3, 6 bonus points
Serbia were a tad better in qualifiers.
Total
------------ (7 teams in Europe / 4 CL group spots / 2 EL group spots)
1 England 99.212 (7/7)
2 Spain 86.998 (7/7)
3 Italy 71.473 (7/7)
4 Germany 69.213 (7/7)
------------ (6 teams in Europe / 2 CL group spots / 2 EL group spots)
5 France 53.581 (6/6)
------------ (6 teams in Europe / 2 CL group spots / 1 EL group spot)
6 Portugal 48.382 (4/6)
------------ (5 teams in Europe / 1 CL group spot)
7 Netherlands 42.700 (5/5)
8 Austria 35.450 (4/5)
9 Scotland 33.500 (2/5)
10 Russia 32.682 (3/5)
------------ (5 teams in Europe - 2 CLQ, 1 ELQ, 2 ECLQ)
11 Ukraine 31.400 (3/5)
12 Serbia 29.875 (2/4)
13 Belgium 29.800 (4/5)
14 Switzerland 28.675 (2/4)
15 Greece 25.950 (2/4)
------------ (4 teams in Europe - 1 CLQ, 0 ELQ, 3 ECLQ)
16 Turkey 25.900 (3/5)
17 Cyprus 25.875 (2/4)
18 Denmark 25.775 (4/5)
19 Croatia 25.650 (1/4)
20 Czech Republic 25.600 (3/5)
21 Norway 24.750 (1/4)
22 Israel 23.875 (2/4)
23 Sweden 22.875 (1/4)
24 Bulgaria 19.250 (2/4)
25 Azerbaijan 17.000 (1/4)
26 Romania 16.650 (1/4)
27 Poland 14.875 (1/4)
28 Hungary 15.875 (1/4)
29 Slovakia 15.625 (1/4)
30 Kazakhstan 15.500 (1/4)
31 Slovenia 15.000 (1/4)
33 Moldova 10.500 (1/4)
36 Finland 8.875 (1/4)
43 Armenia 7.875 (1/4)
45 Estonia 7.041 (1/3)
51 Gibraltar 5.416 (1/4)
------------ (7 teams in Europe / 4 CL group spots / 2 EL group spots)
1 England 99.783 (7/7)
2 Spain 89.855 (7/7)
3 Italy 72.902 (6/7)
4 Germany 70.784 (5/7)
------------ (6 teams in Europe / 2 CL group spots / 2 EL group spots)
5 France 55.748 (6/6)
------------ (6 teams in Europe / 2 CL group spots / 1 EL group spot)
6 Portugal 50.049 (4/6)
------------ (5 teams in Europe / 1 CL group spot)
7 Netherlands 44.300 (5/5)
8 Austria 37.850 (3/5)
9 Russia 34.282 (2/5)
10 Scotland 34.100 (2/5)
------------ (5 teams in Europe - 2 CLQ, 1 ELQ, 2 ECLQ)
11 Serbia 31.875 (2/4)
12 Ukraine 31.800 (0/5)
13 Belgium 30.600 (1/5)
14 Switzerland 29.675 (1/4)
15 Turkey 26.900 (2/5)
------------ (4 teams in Europe - 1 CLQ, 0 ELQ, 3 ECLQ)
16 Greece 26.700 (2/4)
17 Croatia 26.650 (1/4)
18 Denmark 26.575 (3/5)
19 Czech Republic 26.400 (2/5)
20 Cyprus 26.375 (0/4)
21 Norway 25.000 (1/4)
22 Israel 24.125 (1/4)
23 Sweden 22.875 (0/4)
24 Bulgaria 19.500 (0/4)
25 Romania 17.150 (0/4)
26 Azerbaijan 17.000 (1/4)
27 Hungary 16.375 (0/4)
28 Poland 15.875 (0/4)
29 Kazakhstan 15.750 (0/4)
30 Slovakia 15.625 (0/4)
33 Moldova 10.750 (1/4)
The only change in the Top 10 compared to the beginning of the group stages was France leaping ahead of Portugal again,
Russia jumped ahead of Scotland again, thanks to Spartak's EL group win. Quite the
improbable lifeline they were handed there as their opponents Legia missed a penalty
in the 97th minute. Had Pekhart scored, Spartak would have gone from first to third
(and Leicester would have stayed in the EL).
but what a close race that is for 15th.
Just 0.350 points (less than one win) between Greece and the Czech Republic. Cyprus and Croatia most likely will drop out of contention, but for GRE/TUR/DEN/CZE
it'll go down to the wire.
Cyprus are gone, but thanks to Dinamo's win over West Ham Croatia are still hanging on.
0.500 points (exactly one win, for those leagues dividing by four) between the five countries.
Denmark have the advantage of one extra team.
First Europa Conference League effect: all associations down to 31st still have a team alive during all of
autumn. The influence of the ECL on the final ranking is still anybody's guess.
At first glance, not that big of a difference for the lower-ranked nations. As described above, the Netherlands
probably benefitted the most.
At second glance, point totals are inflated. A lot of countries already post record seasons.
That's problematic because on paper the 5-year-ranking should reflect all five years equally, but with more
points to be won the 2021/22 season simply carries more weight than the others, and it will take another
four years for this to even out (by which time UEFA will have revamped their competitions again anyway).
Sweden really chose a bad season to basically sit out.
But the weighting between EL and ECL doesn't feel right. Points in the ECL came about much, much cheaper for
teams of comparable strength, and the couple of available bonus points in the EL don't make up for that.
Messi or no Messi, Ligue 1 is currently not a Top 5 league in Europe. Still, Portugal's weak ECL entries
that have both already been eliminated mean that this is likely bound to change in the course of the
campaign, but PSG can't do it alone even if they should win the CL. The Dutch are in a very strong position
this year and may also aim for the Top 5 from next season.
Scotland remain a two-team league,
And both will play in Europe in spring. They'll stay in top 10 contention.
Russia are in freefall,
As it stands, they'll start next season in 19th, and might even sink lower. Only Ukraine's similarly poor
season is saving them their direct CL spot for now.
and Belgium surprisingly struggle a bit, which is a historic opportunity for us to secure a place in the
Top 10 for the next couple of years.
That was a bad last matchday for Belgium, who lost Brugge and Genk in addition to Antwerp (and
Anderlecht in the qualifiers) and now have only Gent left in the ECL. This also all but hands a really quite
surprising guaranteed spot in the Champions League group stages to the Serbian champions.
Ciao,
Werner
So far so good.
Also, an enormous fight shaping up for what's probably two remaining spots in the top 15 (Serbia should
be safe). Switzerland are clear favourites to take one, the other one is up for grabs. Denmark are in a deep
hole but with four clubs in the group stages have the means to dig themselves out of it. Sweden have played
great qualifiers but in the end only have Malm|| left, which won't be enough.
Panned out pretty much as expected. With just a single draw to their name, Sweden sank like a stone.
Ciao,
Werner
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