(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17
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rec.sport.soccer on Thu Mar 24 22:16:52 2022
We're drawing close to the finish line of the 2022 cycle of Conmebol WCQ. Uruguay and Ecuador both join Brasil and Argentina and clinch their berths
in Qatar, leaving a three-way battle for the interconfederational playoff against the Asian representative. Peru, Colombia and Chile remain thick in
the hunt for Conmebol's last shot at qualifying.
Colombia and Paraguay break their long runs without winning (7 games) or scoring (6 games), while Ecuador sees its unbeaten run stopped at five. Bolivia
goes yet another full WCQ cycle without an away win (2 draws and 7 losses), it's
been now 65 games since they last won a WCQ game as visitor, 8 draws and 57 losses. Brasil, on the other hand, reach opposite landmarks: 50th historical WCQ win as host, and an ongoing 33-game WCQ unbeaten run.
Uruguay 1-0 Peru
Uruguay clinches a World Cup berth with a win over Peru at Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo. A goal by de Arrascaeta, in the 41st minute, separated the two teams. Peruvians complained a lot about a play, near the end, where Trauco seemed to lob the ball over the penalty area and ended up catching Rochet off his line - the Uruguayan keeper backtracked and was inside the goal when he made the save, but it was unclear whether the ball had fully crossed the line or not. Brazilian referee Anderson Daronco just waved play on and, it seems, was told by the VAR team via radio that the ball indeed hadn't gone inside. Uruguay won three out of three WCQ's under new manager Diego Alonso and this surge has yielded a spot in the plane to Qatar. An extra point would have been valuable for Peru, and would have kept Uruguay within reach too. Still, they'll enter the final round ahead of their direct competitors for the playoff spot. Colombia 3-0 Bolivia
Colombia ends their run of six games without a win (or even scoring) with a predictably easy victory at Estadio Metropolitano of Barranquilla. Luis Diaz ran
the show, scoring the opener and assisting Borja's second. Near the end, Uribe added the third. Bolivia was a harmless visitor, as usual.
Colombia is now one point behind Peru and has a better goal difference than both Peru and Chile. Plus, they play the bottom-placed team in the last round. Although they depend on another result to qualify to the playoffs, there is still reason for hope. If they don't revert to their old toothless ways, that is... Bolivia will host Brasil and neither side really have anything else to play for.
Brasil 4-0 Chile
A stylish win for Brasil at Maracan|u, in Rio de Janeiro, their 50th ever as hosts in the WCQ, over a hapless Chilean side, with two goals in either side
of half-time. Neymar scored the opener from a penalty kick and the next three goals came from players whose origins were with local clubs: Vinicius Junior (Flamengo), Phillipe Coutinho (Vasco) and Richarlison (Fluminense). Chile stood
no chance, their only noteworthy moment was a goal correctly called back for handball. Brasil's third goal came from a completely bogus penalty call, a play which probably wasn't even a foul and it isn't clear whether it was inside
the box, but hey, VAR eh?
Chile, in 7th place, now hosts Uruguay. They need to win and root against Colombia and Peru, who play weaker opponents that also do not have anything else to play for. Plus, their goal difference took quite a beating today, though they'd still be ahead of Peru if both sides tie on points.
Paraguay 3-1 Ecuador
A surprisingly assertive win by Paraguay over Ecuador at Estadio Antonio Arandia,
in Ciudad del Este. The hosts, who also were on a six-game streak without scoring,
opened count with an 8th goal minute by Morales. A strong backpass by Hincapi|-
from the whereabouts of the centre circle somehow caught goalkeeper Galindez off
his line and wrongfooted, for a bizarre own goal by the visitors. Early in the second half, Almiron capitalized on yet another defensive blunder by the Ecuadorans
for the 3-0. Caicedo, from a penalty, scored Ecuador's consolation goal.
Poor performance aside, Ecuador was helped by Uruguay's win over Peru and also clinched their berth in Qatar'2022. Their last matchday is at home against Argentina, in what is effectively a friendly for both sides. Paraguay, already out of contention, visits Peru for one of the key games of the last round. Tomorrow evening from La Bombonera, Buenos Aires: Argentina vs Venezuela. Standings so far:
1 Brasil 42 (one game in hand)
2 Argentina 35 (two games in hand)
3 Ecuador 25 (GD +8)
4 Uruguay 25 (GD -2)
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5 Peru 21 (GD -5)
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6 Colombia 20 (GD 0)
7 Chile 19 (GD -5)
8 Paraguay 16
9 Bolivia 15
10 Venezuela 10 (one game in hand)
Next round to be played on March 29th. In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
Peru - Paraguay (1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: 2-2
One of the key games of the round here. Peru only depends on themselves: if they win, they go again to the interconfederational playoffs. A draw doesn't help them much, though, since Colombia plays the bottom-placed side and Chile would beat them on GD if they draw level on points. Paraguay has nothing to play for, though they got a surprisingly emphatic win on this round, we don't know how they'll react to a roaring Estadio Nacional de Lima - which is a place
they don't visit too well, historically.
There is a symmetry in that Peru has the 8th best home record, while Paraguay has the 8th away one, ie, a poor host receives a weak visitor. Up for grabs, really. I'll make it a 2-1 win for Peru because I don't want to leave a blank prediction, but I have no idea what will happen on this one (in soph-terms: Peru 0.34, draw 0.33, Paraguay 0.33).
Venezuela - Colombia (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1: COL 3-0 VEN And here's another one of the key games of the round, to be played at Estadio Cachamay, in Ciudad Guayana. Venezuela is stuck at the bottom and has only been
playing for pride for a while. But they tend to be a rocky host for Colombia, whose last WCQ win in their neighboring country was over 25 years ago... Indeed,
they barely even scored in Venezuelan territory since then. On paper Colombia is clearly the better side and should prevail, let's see if they'll do it on the field as well. I'll tip a tight, tense 0-1 win for Colombia (in soph-terms:
Venezuela 0.30, draw 0.30, Colombia 0.40).
Chile - Uruguay (3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU 2-1 CHI
And here's the third key game of the round. Tough one for Chile, although luckily for them Uruguay has already clinched their spot and doesn't need
any points here. Not that they'll intend to make the Chileans' life any easier, of course, since they are the better, more organized side. I think Chile considered taking this game to Calama, but seeing as it didn't really work as intended against Argentina, they'll be back to Universidad Catolica's San Carlos de Apoquindo, in Santiago, to try to go for a pressure cauldron setting in what are more familiar conditions for them I suppose?
Anyway, Chile vs Uruguay tends to go for Chile when played in Chile, and for Uruguay when played elsewhere, and this game won't be played elsewhere, so I'll call a close 1-0 win for the hosts (in soph-terms: Chile 0.35, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.30).
Bolivia - Brasil (0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA 5-0 BOL
One of the round's two games that are basically friendlies. Brasil won't
count on Neymar, who spared himself from a tiresome trip to La Paz by forcing a yellow card against Chile on this round (an old trick by now I guess). Vini Jr. is also on a yellow card suspension. Last time around in La Paz, Brasil surprisingly blew away the hosts and was very unlucky to be held to a draw.
I have no idea, though, about whether it's reasonable to expect an encore of that performance.
In sum, Bolivia has the altitude, Brasil has the vastly better side, and neither
of the two have anything to play for, really, apart from defending unbeaten runs (Brasil's in the WCQ, and Bolivia's as hosts against Brasil). If both are successful at that, then we're looking at a draw, say, 1-1 (in soph-terms: Bolivia 0.30, draw 0.35, Brasil 0.35).
Ecuador - Argentina (1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1: ARG 1-0 ECU
And here's the other one of the round's two games that are basically friendlies.
I guess Ecuador will want to put on a good show for their crowd to celebrate qualification to the World Cup, but they won't count with the help of the altitude here, since the game will be held in Guayaquil instead of Quito. Argentina is the much better team and it wouldn't be strange to see them pulling
a win here. I'll call it a 1-2 win for the visitors (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.30,
draw 0.25, Argentina 0.45).
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Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
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