Mark:
I've got a problem. I predicted that Argentina would win the Copa America this year. Originally, Argentina and Colombia were going to co-host it, and then that changed at the last minute, and it ended up being played in Brazil instead. I decided that was a good enough reason to declare the prediction void.
Now I didn't want to wait and see if Argentina did win it, and then declare it void after I knew it was wrong, so I did decide to declare it void. But then Argentina went and won it!
So I don't know whether to count it as a correct prediction or not. Is deciding to declare it void but then counting it as a correct prediction after I got it right really any less cheating than waiting until after the final and then declaring it void after I got it wrong would have been?
I'm not sure what to do about it.
I think you shouldn't count it as correct, just as it wouldn't have been
a wrong prediction if Argentina hadn't won. Your final prediction was to
not predict (= to declare the previous prediction void).
Of course declaring the status of the prediction before the event makes
it a real prediction---a prediction that matters.
--
Cheers
milivella
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