(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 13
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rec.sport.soccer on Fri Nov 12 18:55:11 2021
An interesting round in the South American World Cup qualifiers. Brasil at
last clinches qualification, with record advance notice, and Argentina is almost over the line too. The two sides remain unbeaten in this cycle and
will meet in the next round. But below them the battle is tough, with five teams looking like they'll pose a challenge for the remaining 2.5 spots. Ecuador does its homework and is a little above the rest of the pack, but
have a tricky set of matches ahead of them. Chile, once 7 points below the playoff line, are back into contention after a good streak. But they too
have a bumpy road ahead. Colombia and Uruguay are rattling, both sides are
on a 4-game long run without a win and the pressure over them is definitely on. And it seems like Peru, again, should be able to mount a late challenge. Though Bolivia and Paraguay aren't that far behind these, they don't look
good enough to actually get themselves into the qualifying race. But they
can be bumps on other teams' roads.
Ecuador 1-0 Venezuela
It was homework, but still an important win for Ecuador over bottom-feeders Venezuela at Estadio Casa Blanca, in Quito. A goal by Hincapi|- in the 40th minute separated the two sides. Ecuador was clearly the better team in the first half, but slowed down in the second, bringing Venezuela back to the game. But the visitors could not find an equalizer.
Ecuador jumps to the third position, but I think things remain tricky for
them. They play Chile (a), Brasil (h), Peru (a), Paraguay (a) and Argentina (h).
Tough games at home, crucial six-pointers away. As for Venezuela, they don't have realistic hopes to challenge for anything now.
Paraguay 0-1 Chile
A very important win for Chile at Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asuncion. Alexis Sanchez scored the winner from a corner kick on the 55th minute, with some help from Paraguayan keeper Anthony Silva (for whom an own goal has been attributed). Not the most auspicious debut for Paraguay's new manager Guillermo Barros Schelotto. A close game, but Chile was clearly the better and more well-organized side and deserved the win.
This was Chile's third win in a row, which puts them thick into the qualifying battle. But though they get three home games from the remaining five rounds, their path is not gentle: Ecuador (h), Argentina (h), Bolivia (a), Brasil (a) and Uruguay (h). At least they get their six-point games at home, but still have
Argentina, Brasil and a visit to La Paz on their way. Their earlier poor run may prove costly here. Paraguay, on the other hand, lost their third in a row and is losing touch with the pack. For their next five rounds, they play Colombia (a),
Uruguay (h), Brasil (a), Ecuador (h) and Peru (a). Since we're 13 rounds deep into the WCQ and they've only beaten Venezuela so far, I don't really see them putting up a challenge for a spot
Brasil 1-0 Colombia
And here's Brasil's typical close win over Colombia, this time at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo Paulo. A finish by Lucas Paquet|i, assisted by Neymar, won the game for Brasil at the 71st minute. Colombia, as usual, was a difficult
opponent, but never really looked like winning. Plus, they've been toothless for a while, now on a four game run without scoring a goal.
This was Tite's 50th win for Brasil. His WCQ record now is played 24, won 21 and drew 3. Also, with six games to go, Brasil formalizes mathematically what everyone already knew and clinches their spot at Qatar 2022. Colombia, for their part, must make the most of their remaining schedule: Paraguay (h),
Peru (h), Argentina (a), Bolivia (h) and Venezuela (a). It is probably the easiest path of all remaining contenders, but they must make it count inside the pitch.
Peru 3-0 Bolivia
This was actually a good game at Estadio Nacional de Lima. Peru settled it
in the first half, with goals by Lapadula (8th minute), Cueva (30th) and Pe|#a (42nd). This had the makings of a bloodbath, as Peru didn't seem to take the foot off the gas pedal in the second half and created a number of scoring chances. But Bolivia decided to actually show up and, even if they weren't ever really close of stealing a point, they could have pulled one goal back
on a few occasions. And, at least, this made for an entertaining second half for a 3-0 game.
This win brought Peru close to the pack again and, unlike all other teams
bar Uruguay, their remaining schedule doesn't include Brasil or Argentina.
Who knows whether that means they'll sustain their challenge down the line,
as they face Venezuela (a), Colombia (a), Ecuador (h), Uruguay (a) and
Paraguay (h). Bolivia, though not really far behind, just aren't good enough to try to do the same. They play Uruguay (h), Venezuela (a), Chile (h), Colombia (a) and Brasil (h).
Uruguay 0-1 Argentina
A great result for Argentina at Estadio Campe||n del Siglo, in Montevideo, against the beleaguered hosts who were missing several players (such as
Cavani, de Arrascaeta and Valverde, among others). Uruguay started off on
full throttle, but a brilliant finish by Di Maria pounding on a mistake by Piquerez put Argentina ahead, in which was Argentina's only real chance in
the first half. Uruguay spent most of the game on Argentina's half of the field and was a lot more about transpiration than inspiration, but Argentina held on. Messi came on in the middle of the second half, but had a discreet game.
Very poor result for Uruguay, now four games in a row without a win. The
table has been rough for them, their last three games were the derbies
and the next one will be away to Bolivia. After that, it's away to Paraguay, home to Peru and Venezuela and a possible final showdown away to Chile. The pressure is on over Tabarez and his men, but it's still in their hands and
it looks doable given their quality. Argentina is almost over the line, they'll
formalize it in a round or two now.
Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]
1 Brasil 34 12 11 1 0 27 4 23
2 Argentina 28 12 8 4 0 20 6 14
3 Ecuador 20 13 6 2 5 21 13 8
4 Chile 16 13 4 4 5 15 14 1
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5 Colombia 16 13 3 7 3 16 17 -1
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6 Uruguay 16 13 4 4 5 14 18 -4
7 Peru 14 13 4 2 7 13 19 -6
8 Paraguay 12 13 2 6 5 9 18 -9
9 Bolivia 12 13 3 3 7 17 28 -11
10 Venezuela 7 13 2 1 10 8 23 -15
Next round to be played in November 16th. In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
Bolivia - Uruguay (0-2, 4-1, 2-2, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0). Matchday 8: URU 4-2 BOL
Tough challenge for Uruguay at Estadio Hernando Siles, in La Paz. As if
the altitude wasn't already enough of a challenge, Uruguay will be missing important players too. At home, Bolivia should be considered favorites, but I'll call it a 0-0 draw (in soph-terms: Bolivia 0.45, draw 0.40, Uruguay 0.15). Colombia - Paraguay (1-2, 2-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-0). Matchday 8: PAR 1-1 COL
I guess it's up for grabs at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, as two sides that really should change their fortunes meet. In theory, Colombia is clearly the better side and will be at home. Plus, if they want to keep up their challenge, then they have to win games such as one against this rather lacklustre Paraguay. But in practice, they've been kept scoreless for four games now, so who knows? Paraguay, who were a few rounds ago hovering close
to the playoff spot, has shown very little in this cycle. But regardless of
the question marks over their heads right now, I think Colombia wins, 2-1
(in soph-terms: Colombia 0.55, draw 0.30, Paraguay 0.15).
Venezuela - Peru (2-2, 3-2, 3-1, 4-1, 3-0, 0-3). Matchday 8: PER 1-0 VEN
A key game for Peru's ambitions in this qualifying cycle. There is a
taboo on the way, though: Peru's last win in Venezuela was back in the
20th century, in the qualifiers for WC'98. But I guess that what goes
for Colombia above also goes for them now: if they actually expect to
keep their challenge alive, they have to win games such as this. This
should be a close one, but I predict a Peruvian win to keep the competition interesting, 0-1 (in soph-terms, Venezuela 0.25, draw 0.30, Peru 0.45). Argentina - Brasil (1-1, n/a, 1-3, 3-1, 2-1, n/a). Matchday 8: to be played Conditional on other results, Argentina might clinch their qualification
with a win in this game at Estadio Bicentenario, in San Juan. What better opponent to do it against other than Brasil? They'll also be defending a 26-game unbeaten run, their last loss was precisely against Brasil, in the semis of Copa America 2019. For Brasil, already qualified, apart from the rivalry the main motivation would be to break the rivals' unbeaten run
and, if possible, get a little revenge for the Copa America 2021 loss.
Plus, Brasil is also on a WCQ-specific unbeaten run too, last loss was
against Chile in 2015 (since then it was 23 wins and 6 draws in WCQ
matches). I guess Argentina should be considered favorites, since their confidence is high and they'll be at home. But let's frustrate both
sides and make it an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms, Argentina 0.30, draw 0.45,
Brasil 0.25).
Chile - Ecuador (2-1, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0, 4-1). Matchday 8: ECU 0-0 CHI
I guess we have a six-pointer here. Chile is on a roll, brought back into
the pack on the strength of three wins in a row. Ecuador is on a more comfortable position, but tends to travel poorly and this should make
their challenge a lot more bumpy than it looks. I'll call a Chilean win
on this one, say, 2-1 (in soph-terms, Chile 0.55, draw 0.25, Ecuador 0.20).
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Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
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