• 3 Day Space Weather Forecast

    From Sean Dennis@618:618/1 to All on Thu Oct 23 00:19:01 2025
    :Product: 3-Day Forecast
    :Issued: 2025 Oct 23 0034 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

    The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
    Scale levels).
    The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA
    Scale levels).

    NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2025

    Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25
    00-03UT 2.00 1.67 2.67
    03-06UT 1.67 1.33 2.67
    06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.33
    09-12UT 1.00 1.33 2.33
    12-15UT 1.00 1.33 2.33
    15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.33
    18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.00
    21-00UT 1.67 1.67 2.33

    Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

    B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

    Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
    below S-scale storm level thresholds.

    Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2025

    Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25
    S1 or greater 10% 1% 1%

    Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
    levels to be reached on 23 Oct associated with far-sided events. Chances diminish by 24-25 Oct.

    C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

    Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2025

    Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25
    R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
    R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

    Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
    radio blackouts through 25 Oct.



    --- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)
  • From Sean Dennis@618:618/1 to All on Sun Oct 26 00:19:01 2025
    :Product: 3-Day Forecast
    :Issued: 2025 Oct 26 0034 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

    The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
    Scale levels).
    The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 26-Oct 28 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
    G1).

    NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 26-Oct 28 2025

    Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
    00-03UT 2.00 2.00 4.00
    03-06UT 1.67 2.00 4.67 (G1)
    06-09UT 1.67 2.67 4.00
    09-12UT 2.00 3.67 4.00
    12-15UT 2.00 3.00 4.33
    15-18UT 2.33 2.67 5.00 (G1)
    18-21UT 2.67 2.67 4.33
    21-00UT 2.33 2.67 5.00 (G1)

    Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate), are
    likely on 28 Oct due to the anticipated onset of influence from a
    positive polarity coronal hole.

    B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

    Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
    below S-scale storm level thresholds.

    Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 26-Oct 28 2025

    Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
    S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

    Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
    No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
    production is forecast.

    C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

    Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 26-Oct 28 2025

    Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28
    R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
    R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

    Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
    blackouts continues over 26-28 Oct.



    --- MBSE BBS v1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)
  • From Sean Dennis@618:618/1 to All on Wed Oct 29 00:19:01 2025
    :Product: 3-Day Forecast
    :Issued: 2025 Oct 29 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

    The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
    Scale levels).
    The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 29-Oct 31 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
    G1).

    NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 29-Oct 31 2025

    Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31
    00-03UT 4.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67
    03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 3.67
    06-09UT 4.33 4.00 3.33
    09-12UT 3.67 3.67 3.00
    12-15UT 3.00 3.67 3.00
    15-18UT 4.00 4.00 3.33
    18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.00
    21-00UT 4.00 3.33 3.00

    Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate)
    levels, are likely on 29-30 Oct due to the anticipated onset of a CH
    HSS.

    B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

    Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
    below S-scale storm level thresholds.

    Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2025

    Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31
    S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

    Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
    No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
    production is forecast.

    C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

    Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2025

    Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31
    R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
    R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

    Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



    --- MBSE BBS v1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)
  • From Sean Dennis@618:618/1 to All on Sat Nov 1 00:19:02 2025
    :Product: 3-Day Forecast
    :Issued: 2025 Nov 01 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

    The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
    G1).
    The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 01-Nov 03 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
    Scale levels).

    NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 01-Nov 03 2025

    Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
    00-03UT 4.00 3.33 2.67
    03-06UT 3.33 4.00 3.67
    06-09UT 3.33 3.33 3.00
    09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
    12-15UT 3.67 2.33 2.33
    15-18UT 2.67 2.00 2.33
    18-21UT 2.67 2.33 2.00
    21-00UT 3.33 3.33 2.67

    Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

    B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

    Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
    below S-scale storm level thresholds.

    Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 01-Nov 03 2025

    Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
    S1 or greater 1% 5% 10%

    Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
    No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
    production is forecast.

    C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

    Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 01-Nov 03 2025

    Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
    R1-R2 25% 35% 45%
    R3 or greater 5% 10% 10%

    Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
    radio blackouts all three days. A slight chance exists for R3 (Major) or greater blackouts on 02-03 Nov.



    --- MBSE BBS v1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)
  • From Sean Dennis@618:618/1 to All on Tue Nov 4 00:19:02 2025
    :Product: 3-Day Forecast
    :Issued: 2025 Nov 04 0030 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    #
    A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

    The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
    Scale levels).
    The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
    G1).

    NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 04-Nov 06 2025

    Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06
    00-03UT 2.67 1.67 2.33
    03-06UT 2.67 1.33 3.00
    06-09UT 2.33 1.33 3.00
    09-12UT 2.33 1.33 3.00
    12-15UT 2.33 1.33 3.00
    15-18UT 2.33 1.33 3.33
    18-21UT 2.00 1.67 3.33
    21-00UT 2.33 1.67 4.67 (G1)

    Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 06 Nov due to
    CME/HSS arrival.

    B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

    Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
    below S-scale storm level thresholds.

    Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025

    Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06
    S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

    Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
    No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
    production is forecast.

    C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

    Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
    hours. The largest was at Nov 03 2025 1011 UTC.

    Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 04-Nov 06 2025

    Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06
    R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
    R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

    Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
    slight chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) event through 06 Nov.



    --- MBSE BBS v1.1.2 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)