ACUS02 KWNS 210617
SWODY2
SPC AC 210616

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will move from the upper
Midwest/Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the
period. Farther west, a more complicated pattern will develop as a
ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. As this ridge builds, a
mid-level jet streak will be shunted south across the central
Rockies. This will deepen a mid-level low with a closed circulation
likely developing across the central High Plains region by 12Z
Tuesday. In addition, a closed low will persist off the southern
California coast for much of the period. High pressure will be
present across much of the western CONUS with weak lee troughing
along the central and southern High Plains. The surface pattern will
be somewhat less defined farther east with a weak remnant front
likely through the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will dominate areas east of the Appalachians.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability will develop by Monday afternoon in
the wake of a morning MCS across Oklahoma/Kansas. Forecast soundings
show a strongly capped airmass across Kansas/Oklahoma and given the
relatively weak forcing amid modest height falls, do not expect much thunderstorm development until after 00Z. After this time, the
mid-level trough will start to overspread the Plains with a
strengthening low-level jet potentially approaching 50 knots.
Cooling temperatures aloft and strong isentropic ascent should
result in thunderstorm development after sunset Monday evening. Seep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening effective shear (40 to 50
knots) will support the potential for supercells with some hail
threat. As upscale growth continues, the severe wind threat should
increase and continue into the overnight period into portions of central/northern Oklahoma.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is possible along a diffuse frontal
zone from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. Modest lapse rates and
moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells
capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. However, mostly weak
deep-layer shear (20 knots) and weak upper forcing should keep the
overall threat along this zone relatively isolated.

...Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped airmass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 30 to 35 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Strongest thunderstorm activity is
expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and
Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are
possible by afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across
eastern Colorado and shift east through the day to the Missouri
Valley region by 12Z Wednesday. A 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet streak
associated with overnight convection Monday night across KS/OK will
shift east across MO/AR during the day Tuesday and gradually weaken.
In its wake, the primary mid-level jet streak will emerge across
Oklahoma and strengthen Tuesday night as it moves from Oklahoma into
Arkansas. A weak surface low is forecast to be across northwest
Oklahoma Tuesday morning. This surface low and its associated cold
front will drift slowly east through the day.

...Eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and northeast Texas...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across eastern
Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma on the nose of a
40 to 50 knot low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens during the
morning and storms move east of the greatest shear/instability,
expect the MCS to weaken. Some isolated damaging wind gusts may
persist across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and into TN/KY,
but expect this activity to remain mostly sub-severe.

The primary severe weather concern will be Tuesday afternoon/evening
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Strong instability is
forecast across this region in the wake of the morning MCS as cool
temperatures aloft overspread low to mid 70s dewpoints. RAP/NAM
forecast soundings show only modest heating is necessary to erode
inhibition. Therefore, expect additional thunderstorm development
during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front as it moves
across Oklahoma. Storm motion orthogonal to the front should favor
movement along and perhaps off of the front and into the warm
sector. Therefore, all severe hazards will be possible across this
region in a favorable environment featuring strong instability,
moderate deep-layer shear, and elongating, cyclonically curved
hodographs.

A conditional, potentially more volatile tornado threat is possible
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas if significant
destabilization can occur north of any outflow boundary left by
morning convection. 03Z RAP/00Z NAM forecast soundings near Fort
Smith capture this conditional environment well and would
potentially support strong tornadoes. However, this evolution is
highly dependent on the evolution of Day 1 convection across Kansas
and Oklahoma which still remains unclear. In addition, the time
window for this favorable environment would be narrow which also
adds conditionality to the risk. This scenario will be monitored
closely and a Level 3/Enhanced Risk may be justified in later
outlooks if this scenario appears more likely.

...Central Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas
Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear
will be relatively weak, but will increase during the
afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most
favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point
where the cold front and dryline intersect across North Texas.
However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the
dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

...Tennessee Valley...
A weak warm front may be a focus for storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening across western/middle Tennessee as moderate
instability develops across the region. Deep-layer shear should
remain quite weak (less than 20 knots) as the primary mid-level jet
streak remains farther west. However, a few stronger storms capable
of damaging wind gusts may develop during the afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/22/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 170601
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the central US is forecast to deepen
throughout Saturday as several peripheral shortwave features
coalesce over the central MS Valley. The most prominent of these
features will start the period over the southern Rockies before
phasing with the broader trough across the southern Plains Saturday
night. A powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet exiting the central
Rockies/High Plains will round the base of the consolidated trough
helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over the OH Valley and Lower
Great Lakes. A cold front with strong southerly flow ahead of it
will sweep eastward from the OH/MS Valleys into the Mid South
overnight supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

...Ohio Valley to the Ozarks...
Mid-level ascent with an embedded perturbation will expand over the
slow-moving cold front initially positioned from the Ozarks to the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley early Saturday. Southerly flow will
allow for substantial moistening as low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints move northward across MO/IL, into western KY and OH and
eventually Lower MI. Continued low-level warm advection should
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the front by mid
afternoon into the evening. While buoyancy should be limited
(500-1000 J/kg) owing to increasing storm coverage and cloud cover,
elongated mid/upper-level hodographs with largely unidirectional
shear will favor some potential for organized short line segments.
This activity should generally become more organized into the
afternoon/evening as the cold front strengthens and surges eastward
as the upper trough and surface low organize. This will support a
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes
should a more coherent QLCS develop and persist overnight.

...Southern Plains to the Mid MS Valley...
Ahead of the primary southern stream shortwave trough, rich
low-level moisture will advect northward across parts of TX/OK into
the central and lower MS Valley. While some potential exists for
early morning convection to modulate the environment, current
guidance suggests diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg) is
likely ahead of surface trough trailing the developing low farther
north. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
afternoon from northern AR into eastern OK and North TX with the
potential for supercell structures capable of damaging gusts and
hail initially.

With time, the surface cold front over the southern Plains should
begin to surge eastward as the advancing shortwave trough phases
with the strengthening upper trough. Vertical shear will increase
substantially as the mid-level jet streak noses into the Mid South
fostering strong low-level mass response. The cold front will likely
outpace and overtake the surface trough and ongoing convection
supporting rapid upscale growth into a squall line across the
central MS Valley Saturday evening into the early overnight hours.
While uncertainty about the degree of instability given the
overnight timing remains, strengthening low-level wind fields and
mid 60s F dewpoints may delay boundary-layer decoupling long enough
to support a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat overnight as
the QLCS moves eastward.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail are
possible centered over western and central Texas, from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis..
A broad, and somewhat disjointed positive-tilt upper trough with
multiple embedded impulses is forecast to move from the Southwest
and Southern Rockies into the Plains Friday and Friday night. As the
trough advances eastward, enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread a moistening air mass across parts of western and central
TX into southern OK. A lee trough and cold front trailing a weak
surface low over the TX Panhandle will serve as a focus for
scattered storm development Friday afternoon and Friday evening
across much of the southern Pains.

...Trans Pecos into central TX...
Ahead of the southern most mid-level impulse, ascent will increase
through the day eroding weak inhibition over parts of southwestern
and central TX. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints westward, supporting moderate
destabilization over the Pecos Valley northward to the TX South
Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the lee
trough and advancing cold front by mid afternoon, spreading east
northeastward. Veering wind profiles with 40+ kt of deep-layer shear
should support a mix of supercells and clusters/line segments
capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Given the weak inhibition, persistent ascent, and increasing storm
coverage, upscale growth into a large MCS is likely across the
Edwards Plateau to central TX vicinity Friday night. This should
support a continued isolated severe wind/hail threat into the early
Saturday.

...TX Panhandle into southern OK and western North TX...
Farther north, uncertainty is much higher regarding surface-based destabilization. Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be
ongoing at 12Z Friday from the eastern TX Panhandle, Red River
Valley into KS, with remnant cloud cover likely to impact diurnal
heating. An east-west baroclinic boundary is likely to become
established serving as the northern effective limit for the
surface-based warm sector. As mid-level ascent increases, scattered
to numerous storms are likely to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be elevated north of the boundary.
While a messy storm mode with numerous interactions are likely,
at-least isolated hail and damaging winds appear probable from the
eastern TX Panhandle across southeastern OK and North TX Friday and
Friday night.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
into Saturday night, from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A broad positive-tilt upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will
gradually strengthen while moving eastward over central TX Saturday
through Saturday night. Ascent attendant to a strong embedded
shortwave/jet will round the base of the trough and overspread
robust moisture over the northwest Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley.
While early morning thunderstorms are likely to complicate the
forecast, a remnant outflow boundary may serve as a focus for
renewed severe storm development across southeast TX and LA Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

...TX/LA...
Early in the day, an expansive MCS is likely to be ongoing across east/southeast TX. This activity is likely to continue moving
southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, with an isolated wind and
tornado threat. In the wake of the MCS, outflow will stall and
gradually lift back northward, allowing for some air mass recovery
east of the dryline across far south TX. Low 70s F surface dewpoints
and strong heating should support moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. The approach of the basal shortwave and mid-level jet
will support additional storm development with veering wind profiles
and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear favoring supercells and organized
clusters. With most of the activity expected to occur along and
north of the recovering outflow, these storms may be elevated above
the surface. This would favor a risk mainly for large hail given
cool mid-level temperatures.

As forcing intensifies ahead of the deepening trough, upscale growth
is again expected late Saturday evening and overnight. An MCS may
develop and track eastward along the remnant outflow across
southeast TX into southern LA. A threat for damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes may continue overnight as surface moisture and low-level
shear remain stout beneath a strengthening low-level jet across the
Lower Sabine and MS Valley. While some uncertainty remains regarding destabilization, boundary layer separation is likely to be delayed
with continued low-level warm advection off the Gulf overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)