ACUS01 KWNS 181251
SWODY1
SPC AC 181249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OK INTO THE
OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon
into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small
parts of adjacent states. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible across eastern southern California and southwest Arizona as
well.

...Southern CA/Southwest AZ...
Anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical
cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into southern CA/AZ. 12Z
NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PWAT, which is well above the 90th
percentile based on SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is
anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate
buoyancy across much of eastern southern CA and southwest AZ this
afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well,
particularly across eastern southern CA. Thunderstorm development is
expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular
mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells
capable of damaging gusts are possible.

A very-low-probability tornado threat exists as well, particularly
in the Lower CO Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface
winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak
and any tornado threat should be very localized.

...Central/Southern Plains into Ozarks and Mid/Lower MO Valley...
Broad upper troughing remains in place across the northern/central
Plains, anchored by a pair of modest cyclones, one currently
centered over central SD and the other centered over the MT/SK
border vicinity. Another shortwave trough is rotating through the
base of this troughing, and is forecast to progress
eastward/southward into KS and northern OK today before pivoting
into IA/MO/AR during tonight.

Surface analysis reveals a pair of lows, one beneath the central SD
cyclone and another weaker one over northeast OK. Modest troughing
extends between these lows and a diffuse cold front extends
southwestward from the northeast OK low into the TX South Plains.
Mid 60s dewpoints currently extend through much of eastern KS and
western MO.

A modest eastward/southeastward push of the cold front/surface
trough is expected as the shortwave trough moves into KS, with
ascent attendant to these features resulting in thunderstorm
development from the Mid MO Valley across eastern KS/western MO into
central OK and far northwest TX. Highest coverage appears most
likely from far eastern KS into western MO, northeast OK, and
northwest AR. Buoyancy and shear will both be fairly modest.
However, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail
from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel
temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191232
SWODY1
SPC AC 191230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern
Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and
evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper trough/low will move eastward today from the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough
and speed maximum over eastern WY/western SD this morning will
rotate southeastward across parts of the central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging will be maintained over
portions of the Southwest/Four Corners into the northern Great
Basin, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations forecast to spread east-northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a weak low
over the eastern Dakotas should gradually fill through the day,
while a front stalls along/near the KS/NE border to the east of
modest lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains.

...Central Plains...
It appears that increasing large-scale ascent associated with the
embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly
jet may be sufficient to encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop
by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest NE into
western KS. This region should have a modestly moist low-level
airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates
are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear
should aid in convective updraft organization. There is still
considerable uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening across the central Plains. Any thunderstorms that
can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or
gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central KS through
the evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Modest west-southwesterly mid-level winds will be present today over
parts of the Upper Midwest on the eastern side of the upper-level
trough/low. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather poor,
which should limit the development of any more than weak instability
this afternoon. While scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop later today, the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment appears too marginal to include low severe probabilities.

...Southwest...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of central/eastern AZ into western NM and far west TX. This activity is
related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations
rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some
guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm
development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by
orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. Substantial
uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms
later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable
EML, and limited forecast instability/low-level lapse rates. Have
therefore not included any severe wind probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
the south-central Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by
an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...South-Central Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms across northeast OK, southwest MO,
and northwest AR this morning has remained mostly sub-severe
overnight owing to weak instability and deep-layer shear. Current
expectations are for this activity to further weaken as it spreads
eastward across AR and southern MO through mid/late morning. Outflow
from these thunderstorms has surged southward across much of OK per
radar imagery. Recent surface observations also show the primary
front arcs from the OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into
central/eastern KS. A moist and moderately unstable airmass is
forecast to exist this afternoon along/south of the front where
daytime heating occurs.

Large-scale ascent aloft will remain nebulous/weak, with multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations present on the eastern
periphery of upper ridging centered over Mexico and the Southwest.
Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and evening, potentially along and south of the residual
outflow boundary from the ongoing convection this morning. As
low-level lapse rates become steepened through the day, isolated
strong to severe gusts may occur with the more robust thunderstorms
that form. Even though deep-layer shear will remain meager, modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft may also
support occasional hail. The Marginal Risk has been adjusted for the
latest guidance and observational trends, with somewhat greater
confidence in convection occurring across the OK/TX Panhandles into
OK along/near the outflow boundary compared to locations farther
north in KS along the front.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak upper trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will
translate slowly eastward across parts of the OH Valley and Upper
Great Lakes through the period. A seasonably moist low-level airmass
will remain over these areas along/south of a front, but mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain quite poor. Ongoing precipitation
and cloud cover should also temper destabilization to some degree
through this afternoon, with only weak MLCAPE forecast to develop.
While isolated strong/gusty winds and small hail may occur with any
of the stronger cores that can form later this afternoon across
parts of WI into northern IL/IN and southern Lower MI, the overall
severe threat appears too limited to include low severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/20/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241231
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts
today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great
Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while
gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue
tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and
lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to
gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by
late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the
southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this
morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat
elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level
shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK.

Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur
along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered
daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the
development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are
forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft
strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in
updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop
and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and
Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening.

Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may
struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most
guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to
the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if
stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the
thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability
as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the
stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend
to be less organized with southward extent, especially into
coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still
occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251227
SWODY1
SPC AC 251226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southern
New England today. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two will be possible with some of this convection. Additional
thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind may
occur across parts of the Southwest.

...Southeast to Southern New York/New England...
A positively tilted upper trough extending from the Great Lakes
across the mid/lower MS Valley and southern Plains will make slow
progress eastward today towards the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts. At the
surface, a cold front will make similar eastward development, with a
moist airmass in place ahead of it. Rather poor lapse rates aloft
and cloud cover/ongoing precipitation will delay/hinder diurnal
destabilization across much of the warm sector today. A weakly
unstable airmass is still anticipated along/ahead of the front from
the Mid-Atlantic northward into southern New England. Enhanced
southwesterly low/mid-level flow may support occasional damaging
winds with thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Sufficient
low-level shear may also be in place to support some risk for a
tornado or two, mainly from parts of northern VA into southern
NY/New England. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker with
southward extent from the Carolinas into GA, but greater instability
should be present owing to stronger diurnal heating. Isolated strong
to damaging winds may occur with convection that can develop
along/ahead of the front across these areas as well.

...Southwest...
A closed mid/upper-level low over central CA this morning will move
slowly east-southeastward through the period. Mid-level
west-southwesterly flow ahead of this feature should gradually
increase through the day, with large-scale ascent overspreading
parts of the Southwest by early afternoon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop initially over the higher
terrain of AZ, and subsequently develop slowly northward through the
evening. Weak to locally moderate instability coupled with modest
deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail/wind threat with the
more robust convection that develops, especially where low-level
lapse rates can become steepened through diurnal heating/mixing of
the boundary layer.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261216
SWODY1
SPC AC 261215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and marginally severe gusts are
possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico.

...AZ...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern CA,
tracking southeastward toward southern AZ. Increasing low-level
winds and large-scale lift associated with this system will aid
widespread thunderstorms today from southeast into east-central AZ.
Along the western periphery of this convection, a rather moist and
unstable air mass will be present. Afternoon MLCAPE values over
2500 J/kg and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will promote
some risk of hail in the stronger cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates will also develop immediately west of the primary thunderstorm
area, which could result in gusty/damaging winds. Most model
guidance suggests that widespread storms will persist through much
of the day, with steering flow from the southwest limiting the
amount of westward development into the lower deserts. Therefore
have maintained the ongoing MRGL risk, and will continue to
re-evaluate for a possible upgrade through the day.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/26/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 271237
SWODY1
SPC AC 271235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will be centered over the ArkLaTex and Lower MS
Valley regions today. Upper lows will affect the southwest and
southeast states, where scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will occur. Relatively weak CAPE/shear parameters will likely
preclude any organized severe storms. Nevertheless, an isolated
strong/severe storm will be possible over the mountains of east
TN/western NC, and over southwest AZ - both areas being in proximity
to upper low centers where cool temperatures aloft could result in
hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/27/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 281208
SWODY1
SPC AC 281207

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into far West Texas today.

...NM/West TX...
An upper low over western AZ will continue to track slowly eastward
today, with southwesterly mid/upper-level flow in place over much of
the southwest states. A combination of pockets of favorable daytime
heating and surface dewpoints in the lower 50s will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid
afternoon. This activity will spread across the MRGL risk area
through mid/late afternoon, posing a low-end risk of gusty/damaging
winds and hail.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/28/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 291127
SWODY1
SPC AC 291126

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft and limited large-scale forcing mechanisms will be
present today over most of the nation, while an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest region. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the central and southern
Rockies, and along a cold front as it moves into parts of NV/ID and
vicinity. In both areas, limited low-level moisture and weak
instability should preclude severe thunderstorm activity.

TS Imelda is expected to strengthen off the FL coast today, but
remain well offshore. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in
distant outer bands from much of FL into the NC/SC/GA coast, the
risk of strong/severe storms is low.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/29/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 011230
SWODY1
SPC AC 011229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through early Thursday morning.

...Central US...
Upper troughs will affect parts of the northwest US and New England
today, with a broad upper ridge over the central states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing but weakening over the central Plains this
morning. It appears likely this activity will diminish by noon, but
have expanded the TSTM forecast area slightly to account for recent trends.

...Western WA...
Other thunderstorms are noted this morning off the coast of WA
beneath a cold upper low. It is unclear if activity can make it
onshore, but a few strikes are possible.

...South FL...
Finally, isolated afternoon thunderstorms may affect parts of the
southern FL later today. Severe storms are not expected in any of
these areas.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 021231
SWODY1
SPC AC 021229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stagnant upper pattern persists across the nation
today, with a broad ridge across most of the central/eastern US.
Upper troughs will affect the northwest and northeast states. A few
areas will have at least low risk of thunderstorms today.

...Great Basin into Northern Rockies...
As the upper trough continues to slowly build into the western
states, sufficient low/midlevel moisture will be present along and
ahead of a cold front to yield marginal CAPE values (generally below
1000 J/kg). Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon along a corridor from central CA into
western MT. Weak instability and weak low-level winds should
preclude severe storms.

...MN/WI/MI...
A weak cold front will sag southward into the Lake Superior region
later today, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings show modest lapse rates and MLCAPE values of
around 500 J/kg. Shear profiles would support a conditional risk of
organized storms, but weak moisture/instability should preclude
severe storms.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in
a moist environment across the lower/mid MS Valley, and over parts
of FL.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/02/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.

...Intermountain West into the Central/Northern Rockies...
A well-defined, slightly positively tilted shortwave trough is
currently progressing through northern/central CA. Eastward
progression is expected to continue throughout the day, with the
shortwave forecast reach western UT by early Saturday morning with a
more neutral tilt. Strong mid-level flow will extend throughout the
base of this shortwave, spreading from central/southern CA into the
central Intermountain West as the wave moves eastward. Strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will precede this wave as well,
contributing to isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout much
of the Great Basin into the western Slopes. Strong daytime heating
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support buoyancy
throughout much of this region, although the relatively scant
low-level moisture will keep the overall buoyancy modest. Even with
the modest buoyancy, high-based storms combined with moderate
low/mid-level flow could still result in a few strong surface gusts.
Greatest chance for a few gust will be later this afternoon/early
evening from northern into east-central UT. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of hail are possible this evening and tonight,
particularly across northern/eastern UT and vicinity.

...Elsewhere...
A broad and weak upper low will remain centered over the central
Gulf Coast, with lift associated with this system contributing to
thunderstorms within the moist airmass in place along the Gulf Coast
and FL. Southern extent of a cold front moving across Ontario will
glance Upper MI and northern Lower MI, contributing to isolated
storms. A few afternoon thunderstorms are also possible across Mid
MS Valley amid strong heating, moderate low-level moisture, and
modest low-level convergence. In each of these areas, limited shear
should keep the severe potential low.

An extensive low-level jet is anticipated from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley tonight. A few elevated
thunderstorms are possible across eastern ND and northwestern MN
tonight, but warm mid-level temperatures should mitigate the overall
severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WY...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Rockies to northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows an upper low moving into western UT
within broadly cyclonic upper flow from the western CONUS into
northern/central Plains. This upper low is forecast to devolve into
an open wave while continuing northeastward within the broad
troughing, reaching the northern Plains by early tomorrow morning.
Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout the
eastern periphery of this wave, spreading eastward from the central
Rockies and across the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows lower pressure across the Plains ahead
of the upper low. A cold front was also analyzed from southeast
Manitoba southwestward across the central Dakotas and southern WY to
another low in southwest WY. Pressure gradient between these lower
pressures over the Plains and the high over the Mid-Atlantic will
support gusty southerly winds across the Plains and Mid/Upper MS
Valley. Even with this moderate southerly flow, low-level moisture
along and ahead of the cold front will remain modest, offset by
strong boundary-layer heating and resultant mixing. This should keep
much of the northern and central Plains free of thunderstorms
throughout the day.

Some daytime thunderstorms are likely across the central Rockies,
closer to the upper low and stronger large-scale ascent. These
storms are expected to progress northeastward towards a warmer and
more mixed airmass over southeast WY/northeast CO/NE Panhandle
during the late afternoon/early evening. A few stronger gusts are
possible as these ongoing storms interact with the deeply mixed
boundary layer over the area. The cold front will be near this
region as well, with some gust enhancement possible due to frontal
circulations as well.

Later into the evening, a strengthening low-level jet and resulting
warm-air advection will aid in thunderstorm development north of the
front, most likely from northern SD into eastern ND/northwest MN.
Cooling mid-level temperatures will help support moderate buoyancy
with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear will be in
place as well, with the resulting environmental conditions
supportive of occasional updrafts capable of producing hail.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/04/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 051247
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
moving quickly across the central/eastern Dakotas. This shortwave is
embedded within broad upper troughing that covers much of the
western and central CONUS. Upper ridging centered over the
Mid-Atlantic covers much of the eastern CONUS.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern ND/SD border
vicinity. A cold front extends southward from this low across
eastern SD and then back more southwestward across central NE and
northwest KS. This low is expected to progress quickly northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave, with the cold front making
steady eastward/southeastward progress as well. Airmass preceding
this cold front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints likely in the
upper 50s/lows 60s from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest,
despite relatively strong pre-frontal heating/mixing. Even with
these warm and modestly moist pre-frontal conditions, buoyancy will
remain limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Still,
thunderstorm development appears probable along the length of front
from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Given the limited
buoyancy and front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
shear, much of this development will likely be undercut quickly by
the progressive front.

This convective evolution should temper the overall severe
potential, despite seasonally strong mid-level southwesterly flow
near the frontal zone. Greatest severe threat is expected over
western/central KS, where the best overlap between the modest
buoyancy and moderate shear exists. A few more organized updrafts
capable of producing large hail and strong gusts are possible here.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061239
SWODY1
SPC AC 061238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the
vicinity of a cold front that extends from the TX Panhandle
northeastward through eastern Upper MI. This cold front is forecast
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs move within the upper troughing that extends from
the Canadian Prairies southwestward off the central/southern CA
coast. Moderate southwesterlies will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the upper troughing, although much of this stronger
flow will remain displaced north of the cold front.

Given the presence of moderate pre-frontal low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints generally in the low 60s), showers and occasional
thunderstorms are expected along the front as it continues eastward/southeastward today. However, overall buoyancy will be
tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. Two areas along the frontal
zone, northern IL into Lower MI and eastern NM/TX Panhandle, do
appear to have a higher potential for a few stronger storms.

...Northern IL into Lower MI...
Surface dewpoints in the low 60s, temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) are expected
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Lift along
the front, along with additional ascent provided by a low-amplitude
embedded shortwave trough, will interact with this buoyancy to
support thunderstorm development along the cold front as it
progresses eastward across the region. Moderate shear will also be
in place, with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector a bit
more orthogonal to the front than areas farther south. As such,
there is greater potential for thunderstorms to remain within the
warm sector longer. As such, a few stronger storms with damaging
gust potential are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of
effective shear oriented along the boundary. These storms may
continue after dark into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust
potential. Even so, minimal buoyancy should limit the overall severe
threat.

...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle...
Strong heating and mixing will contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization ahead of the cold front by the late afternoon. This destabilization will likely lead to thunderstorm development along
the front, but the overall buoyancy will be limited by warm
mid-level temperatures/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, high
storm bases and 30 kt of deep-layer shear could result in a few
stronger gusts. Overall potential and coverage is currently expected
to be too low to merit introducing any severe probabilities.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/06/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071255
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Early morning surface analysis places a low over southern Lower MI,
with a cold front extending back southwestward into northwest TX
before arcing more westward through the TX South Plains into
southeast NM. High pressure will continue to settle southward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the day, helping to
push the cold front farther southward/southeastward. By 00Z, this
cold front will likely extend from western NY southwestward into
southwest TX then westward across the TX Trans Pecos and
northwestward into south-central NM.

A seasonally moist airmass precedes this cold front, with ascent
along this frontal zone, as well as pre-frontal warm-air advection,
supporting the currently ongoing showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front from the central Plains into the Mid MS and OH
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front will
likely continue throughout the day, but poor lapse rates will
keeping buoyancy low and tempering storm strength. Aside from NM
(discussed below), best chance for a few stronger storms is over north-central/northeast OH into western PA where deep-layer shear
will be a bit more orthogonal to the front.

...Western and Central New Mexico...
Upslope easterly/southeasterly surface winds are anticipated across
much of central and southern NM along the southern and western
periphery of a stalling cold front. Strong heating of this modestly
moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft will support
airmass destabilization and limited buoyancy. Upslope flow and
orographic effects combined with a very modest shortwave trough
progressing along the northern periphery of a building ridge should
provide enough lift for thunderstorm initiation. Wind profiles
featuring low-level southerlies veering to moderate
west-southwesterlies aloft should be strong enough to result in a
few stronger, more organized storms capable of large hail. Given the
high storm bases, a strong downburst or two is possible as well.
However, rising mid-level heights and modest buoyancy will likely
limit storm duration, keeping the overall severe threat marginal.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/07/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery depicts extensive upper ridging from
the southern Plains into the Canadian Prairies, with a pair of
shortwave troughs flanking this ridging. The eastern shortwave
trough extends from the Hudson Bay southwestward through the OH
Valley while the western shortwave extends from central British
Columbia to off the Pacific Northwest coast. The eastern trough will
remain progressive today, taking it off the Northeast coast by this
evening. The western trough will deepen into a notable upper low
while remaining just off the Pacific Northwest Coast. The upper
ridging between these two systems will expand
northward/northeastward and cover much of the CONUS by early
Thursday morning.

Recent surface analysis placed an extensive cold front from central
ME southwestward into central MS before arcing more westward into
southwest TX and then back northwestward through central NM. Eastern
portion of this front will remain progressive today, moving quickly
off the Northeast coast over the next few hours. The central portion
of the front will also make steady southeastward/southward progress
into more of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states. Modest buoyancy
ahead of the front will support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Southeast. Meager buoyancy should keep the
severe threat low, although some lingering mid-level flow could
allow for a few transient multicells capable of strong outflow gusts.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible for the Lower MS Valley
into South TX but limited convergence along the front and warm
mid-level temperatures should keep coverage low. Higher thunderstorm
chances exist farther west into NM/AZ, where another day of
low-level upslope flow is anticipated on the western periphery of
the stalled cold front. Strong heating will destabilize the airmass,
with isolated to scattered thunderstorm expected this afternoon.
Modest vertical shear (20-30kt) may support a few more robust
multicell storms capable of occasional damaging gusts and small hail
given steeper low and-level lapse rates and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts may occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning will
advance inland today across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. At
the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these
areas through the period, while becoming less well defined into the
Southwest. A broad fetch of tropical moisture emanating from the
eastern Pacific will continue to stream northward ahead of the upper
trough, with rich low/mid-level moisture expected across parts of
the Southwest and southern Great Basin. Ongoing cloudiness and
precipitation across eastern UT/western CO into AZ will hinder
daytime heating to some extent. Greater instability should develop
on the periphery of the morning precipitation, namely across parts
of western/central UT and central/southern AZ. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (locally greater across UT) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. The
only appreciable change to the Marginal Risk with this update was to
expand it southward into more of central/southern AZ where somewhat
greater heating/instability is forecast to occur/develop later
today.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A slow-moving upper trough/low over the Southeast will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the coast of the Carolinas during the
latter half of the period. This feature may approach the NC Coast
early Sunday morning, which will prove favorable for upper 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints to advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. Ample forecast
low-level and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and
gusty winds with any supercell that can form in this environment and
move inland across the Outer Banks/coastal NC.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough will overspread
the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon and
evening. This should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms
initially developing over the higher terrain to move northeastward
across parts of southern/eastern MT. Low-level moisture should
remain fairly limited across this area, and lapse rates aloft are
forecast to be modest. This should hinder the degree of instability
which can develop. Still, enhanced mid-level flow may still support
some threat for strong/gusty winds with any convection that
persists. The overall severe threat appears too isolated to include
low wind probabilities at this time, although trends will be
monitored.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/11/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121201
SWODY1
SPC AC 121200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds the main threats.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
A shortwave trough will continue ejecting northeastward across the
northern Plains today, as large-scale upper troughing persists over
much of the western CONUS. A reservoir of greater low-level moisture
will remain confined to parts of southern/central AZ, where mid 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints are present across lower elevations.
Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain fairly
modest, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon
with filtered daytime heating. Weak low-level winds will strengthen
with height at mid/upper-levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain
fairly nebulous, most guidance still suggests scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across this region and
spread generally east-northeastward through the early evening. With
favorable shear in place for some updraft organization, some of
these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for marginally
severe hail and/or gusty winds.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/12/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131237
SWODY1
SPC AC 131236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur from the Four
Corners region and eastern Arizona to far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. Locally damaging winds appear possible mainly tonight
along parts of south-central coastal California.

...Coastal California...
An upper trough/low over the coastal Pacific Northwest this morning
will dig southward along the CA Coast through tonight. An attendant
strong mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and
overspread parts of coastal south-central CA this evening into early
Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent with this jet should
support low-topped convection along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Even though low-level moisture and related instability are expected
to remain quite limited with poor lapse rates present, strong flow
aloft may still support gusty to locally severe/damaging winds as
convection spreads east-southeastward along parts of the CA Coast
late this evening and overnight.

...Southwest into Far West Texas...
Between the upper trough/low over the West Coast and upper ridging
centered over much of the Plains, a fetch of low/mid-level moisture
with tropical origins will persist today over parts of the
Southwest. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, but diurnal
heating should gradually destabilize the airmass this afternoon,
with scattered to numerous convection forecast to once again
initially develop over the higher terrain of AZ into the Four
Corners region. Strong deep-layer shear may support some updraft
organization, with isolated hail and gusty winds possible with the
more robust cores. A somewhat separate corridor of strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop northeastward late this
afternoon and evening off the higher terrain of north-central Mexico
into portions of far west TX.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/13/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141232
SWODY1
SPC AC 141230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through midday for portions of
coastal southern California.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the
Southwest, as upper ridging is maintained over the southern
Plains/lower MS Valley and as an upper trough/low progresses inland
over CA and the Great Basin. A fetch of low/mid-level moisture will
continue streaming northward from northern Mexico into parts of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through the period. Large-scale
forcing will remain nebulous across these areas, but orographic lift
and filtered daytime heating should encourage isolated to scattered
convective development across parts of NM this afternoon. With
moderate to strong deep-layer shear and weak instability expected,
the stronger updrafts may acquire some organization and marginal
supercell characteristics. Isolated hail and gusty winds appear
possible with this activity as it spreads generally northeastward
through the early evening before weakening.

...Coastal Southern California...
A low-topped line of convective showers will continue to advance east-southeastward this morning across parts of coastal southern CA
as an upper trough/low advances inland over central CA. Strong
mid-level westerly flow will accompany this convective line, and
locally gusty winds remain possible for a few more hours this
morning. However, meager instability will likely continue to hinder
the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 151238
SWODY1
SPC AC 151236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
A pronounced upper trough/low over the Sierras and western Great
Basin will advance eastward towards the Rockies through the period.
An attendant 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will also shift
from the Southwest/Four Corners to the southern/central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today. As large-scale ascent associated with
these features overspreads this region, a surface lee cyclone is
forecast to deepen over north-central/northeast CO by this evening.
Low-level moisture through the Rio Grande Valley in NM and central
High Plains is expected to remain fairly limited, with surface
dewpoints generally in the 50s. Still, daytime heating and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates (mainly over the central High
Plains) should support the development of weak instability this
afternoon.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop over the
higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies by early afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. This activity should move
generally northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support isolated
supercells with a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional severe
winds may also occur. With time this evening, these thunderstorms
will move northward and cross a front forecast to be draped across
southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Give sufficient MUCAPE forecast
north of the front, a strengthening low-level jet this evening
across the central Plains may support a continued threat for
isolated severe hail as this convection becomes elevated into parts
of eastern WY/western SD. Overall, confidence in a more concentrated
area of severe hail potential remains too low for increased
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/15/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161242
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across the central
High Plains with this update. Within broad upper-level troughing
encompassing much of the western CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough
will eject northeastward today from the central Rockies to the
northern Plains. The primary surface low associated with this
feature will likewise develop northward across the Dakotas through
the day, eventually reaching the ND/MB border late tonight. A cold
front will continue advancing east-southeastward over the
northern/central Plains, with surface lee troughing extending
southward from this front over the central High Plains of eastern
CO/western KS and vicinity. Secondary surface low development is
also forecast across this area. Low-level moisture ahead of the lee
trough/cold front will likely remain rather limited. But, generally
50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow corridor by late afternoon/early evening across parts of western/central NE into
eastern CO/western KS along/near the front.

Daytime heating of this airmass should support weak destabilization
and eventual thunderstorm development as MLCIN gradually erodes. A
modest uptick in a southerly low-level jet may also aid thunderstorm development through the evening. Any convection which forms along
the front may become supercellular given around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear forecast. But, this activity should be undercut
fairly quickly by the cold front and become elevated. Isolated large
hail appears to be the main threat, but an occasional severe gust
may also occur with any thunderstorms that can remain surface based.
A brief window may also exist early this evening for a tornado as
low-level shear increases, before convection becomes mainly
elevated.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 170044
SWODY1
SPC AC 170042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment remains in
place this evening across a narrow zone from far east-central CO
into northwest KS and southwest NE, generally to the east-northeast
of a surface low across eastern CO, and along/south of a
southward-sagging cold front. Within this zone, MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt is supporting supercell
potential, though the longevity of the remaining threat will be
limited by nocturnally increasing MLCINH. The threat for isolated
severe hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado may persist until
around 02-03 UTC. See MCD 2149 for more information.

..Dean.. 10/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 170522
SWODY1
SPC AC 170520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts
will be possible this evening through the overnight period from the
southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave
near the base of this trough is forecast to amplify by late in the
period across the southern Rockies. Farther northwest, an upstream
shortwave trough and vigorous mid/upper-level jet will dig
southeastward across the northern Rockies late tonight.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit diurnal storm potential, but isolated strong-storm development
cannot be ruled out by early evening. An increase in primarily
elevated convection is expected from mid/late evening onward, in
response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and eventual
approach of the southern Rockies shortwave trough.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late in the period will support potential for at least
transient storm organization tonight, though guidance continues to
vary regarding the coverage and intensity of overnight elevated
convection. Isolated large hail and localized strong/damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms into early Saturday
morning.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191237
SWODY1
SPC AC 191235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from
south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Localized wind damage will be possible later today from upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late
tonight, localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be
possible from the northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New
England.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful mid- to
upper-level trough from western Ontario southward to the central
Gulf Coast. This upper feature will attain a negative tilt as it
moves towards the Eastern Seaboard tonight. A cyclone analyzed this
morning over Lake Huron will move north-northeastward toward Hudson
Bay, while a trailing cold front will push east-southeastward
through parts of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
An ongoing band of convection will continue to move eastward across
the northeast Gulf Coast as the airmass attempts to slowly
destabilize ahead of it. The latest surface observations confine
the richer moisture to the immediate coastal counties (i.e., beaches
and bays) of the FL Panhandle, where upper 60s to low 70s deg F
dewpoints reside. Relatively poor lapse rates will limit updraft
vigor and the overall coverage/intensity of strong to locally severe
storm activity. Nonetheless, the moist low levels in the presence
of moderate speed shear in the surface-2km layer will perhaps
support an isolated threat for a brief/weak tornado and/or a
damaging gust. This activity will likely weaken towards midday as
large-scale ascent focuses farther north and away from the region.

...Eastern OH into the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
vicinity...
Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day
along/ahead of the cold front from the upper OH Valley/central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will
be strong, with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Recent
convection-allowing model guidance agrees in showing a developing
low-topped convective band initially over eastern OH spreading into
western PA coincident with weak instability. Have correspondingly
adjusted the western bound of the wind risk to account for this
model trend.

Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become
sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest
increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between
06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging
wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along
the front into early Monday morning.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/19/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over a portion of the southern Great Lakes.

...Southern Great Lakes...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper vorticity maximum
over western IA will quickly rotate through the base of a
larger-scale trough/mid-level low centered over the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This upper feature is forecast to move across
the southern Great Lakes during the afternoon as a belt of intense
mid- to high-level flow arcs from the north-central Plains through
the MS/OH Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic states. The mid-level
cold pocket (-24 to -27 deg C at 500 mb) will overspread a boundary
layer with surface temperatures rising into the lower 60s
immediately ahead of a cold front. Latest RAP/NAM/HRRR model
guidance shows a plume of 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 9 deg C/km
protruding northeast from IN into northwest OH as widely scattered
convection develops during the early to mid afternoon. As this
shallow convection matures, strong to locally severe gusts (50-65
mph) are possible for a few hours before this activity weakens by
the early evening as it spreads across the Lake Erie vicinity.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of
northwest Gulf Coast states into the southern Appalachians, and late
tonight over portions of southern New England.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 221251
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a pronounced upper trough/low
over the Northeast and southeast Canada, while another similar
feature moves ashore the CA coast today. In the low levels, a front
will push northeast through New England today. A several hour
window of opportunity will exist for low-topped thunderstorms to
develop ahead of the front across southern New England. The 12 UTC
OKX raob only showed around 200 J/kg MUCAPE in proximity to where
weak convection has developed this morning. Model forecast
soundings vary regarding the magnitude of instability (i.e., scant
to weak) across southern New England this morning, casting some
uncertainty on storm intensity. The scenario of a negligible risk
for severe from weak/shallow convection appears most probable with
this activity before it pushes east of the coast. Farther west over
CA and the Desert Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will intermittently occur as a lobe of ascent and adequate PW
facilitate the development of storms through early evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/22/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 271158
SWODY1
SPC AC 271156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
A localized risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will briefly focus
over a small portion of the Florida Panhandle this morning.

...FL Panhandle...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over western TN which is forecast to move east today and reach the
southern Appalachians tonight. A mid-level dryslot has moved into
the northeast Gulf of America early this morning and is co-located
with an 80-kt speed max at 300 mb.

In the low levels, a stationary maritime front is draped over the
southern portions of the FL Panhandle with a moisture-rich and
adequately unstable airmass along and south of the boundary.
Easterly low-level flow veering to westerly with height in the mid
levels has resulted in a wind profile supporting updraft rotation.
A couple of surface-based supercells have been observed approaching
the coast this morning with cycling mesocyclones. A few hours of
localized severe potential may develop inland over the southern
portion of the FL Panhandle through the late morning. A tornado
and/or a damaging gust or two are possible with the supercell
activity near the coast.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Great Plains states. Elongated hodographs over the central High
Plains may aid in the development of a stronger storm or two late
this afternoon/early evening, but storm intensity will probably
remain limited. A few storms exhibiting transient rotation may
develop over the near-shore waters to the east of the FL-GA-SC
coast, but models primarily show this activity remaining offshore
over the continental shelf/Gulf Stream.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/27/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA/ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
Large-scale trough amplification will steadily occur from the Great
Plains toward the Ozarks/Mid-South through tonight. A related southeastward-moving cold front will reach the Lower Mississippi
Valley by this evening, intercepting a relatively moist air mass
(mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) that will continue to advect
northward across southeast/east Texas and southern/western
Louisiana. Ample warm-sector pre-frontal heating will occur into the
afternoon particularly across east/southeast Texas, where
mixed-layer buoyancy may exceed 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Increasing storm development/intensification is expected into
mid/late afternoon near the advancing front, with strengthening
winds aloft (45+ kt effective shear) supportive of organized storms
including a few supercells. Any such supercells could pose a risk
for large hail, and possibly some tornado risk. Damaging winds may
also occur as storms increase/merge and spread east-southward from
far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana by early/mid-evening.
Current thinking is the overall risk will remain relatively
isolated, but subsequent outlooks will reevaluate any need for
somewhat higher probabilities on a sub-regional basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/28/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 291241
SWODY1
SPC AC 291239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
Pronounced large-scale trough amplification will occur through late
tonight and early Thursday over the Eastern States, centered over
the Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau. A strong polar jet in
association with this trough will develop toward/east of the
Appalachians tonight, with steady surface cyclogenesis occurring
particularly late tonight toward the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge
vicinity, with the 00z ECMWF continuing to exhibit a somewhat
stronger surface low as compared to other global guidance.

Low-level moistening will occur near the coast late tonight
including coastal portions of North Carolina and Outer Banks,
northward into southeast Virginia and Delmarva vicinity. Modestly
increasing potential for mostly elevated convection/isolated
lightning flashes will occur over inland parts of the region, but
some near-surface based storms could materialize near the immediate
coast, particularly if/where surface dewpoints approach 60 F late
tonight and early Thursday. Limited buoyancy even for near-coastal
areas should limit the overall magnitude/likelihood of the severe
storm potential. However, a couple of locally severe storms could
materialize in the presence of supercell-supportive deep-layer shear
(effective magnitudes 45+ kt) and moderately enlarged low-level
hodographs, with related potential for localized wind damage and/or
a brief tornado.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/29/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 301242
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur across the Mid-Atlantic states/Delmarva vicinity today.

...Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
The upper trough centered over the Cumberland Plateau/central
Appalachians will continue northeastward today toward the Northeast,
with the exit region of a strong polar jet similarly spreading from
the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians toward the Northeast. Beneath
diffluent flow aloft, a surface low will continue to deepen from the
Blue Ridge/Delmarva north-northeastward toward southeast/east New
York by tonight, with a northward-flux of a seasonally moist air
mass (low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints) along the immediate
coast/I-95 general vicinity.

This low-level moisture/modest buoyancy will continue to
semi-interface with a northward-transitioning low-level jet across
the Mid-Atlantic, with strong low-level shear/SRH accentuated by
backed (southeasterly) near-surface winds to the east of the surface
low track. This scenario could yield a few supercells, including
related potential for locally damaging winds and/or a tornado today.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/30/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 021220
SWODY1
SPC AC 021218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight.

...Southeast...
An upper low centered over the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley early this
morning will continue east-southeastward toward the coastal
Southeast through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-22C or
colder at 500mb) will be attendant to the upper low, with modest
boundary-layer heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau
toward the southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse
rates should allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective
temperatures into the 18-20z time frame. This will support isolated thunderstorm development across northeast Alabama/northern Georgia
and eastern portions of Kentucky/Tennessee. Some small hail might
also occur with these low-topped thunderstorms.

Late tonight, a surface wave is expected to develop off the coast of
the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist air mass toward the coast will
accompany this developing low. It seems likely that the meaningful
warm sector will tend to remain focused offshore, although it is
conceivable that a few stronger storms might approach the immediate
coast/Outer Banks late tonight.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/02/2025

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