ACUS01 KWNS 161234
SWODY1
SPC AC 161233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large
hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper
pattern across CONUS, consisting of two ridge/trough pairs. The
westernmost pair features ridging that extends from just off the
central CA coast north through southern BC and a shortwave trough
that extends from central MT into northeast NV/northwest UT. The
eastern most pair features ridging from the southern Plains through
the Upper Great Lakes and a modest cyclone centered over central NC.
Despite this amplified upper pattern, flow is generally modest, with
the strongest flow extending through the base of the western
shortwave from northern UT into eastern WY.

The surface analysis reveals a relatively nondescript surface
pattern free of any sharp gradients or notable features, aside from
a weak low just off the northeast NC coast. Moderate moisture (i.e.
mid/upper 60s dewpoints) does extend from the southern Plains
through the Lower MO Valley into southern IA.

...Central High Plains into the Central Plains ...
The western shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast
to progress slowly eastward throughout the day, evolving towards a
more closed mid/upper level circulation as it does. Eastern
periphery of ascent associated with this shortwave will impinge on
the western periphery of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy,
resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern WY/CO
into western NE/KS. The best buoyancy across the region will likely
reside from far northeast CO into central NE where low to mid 60s
dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE
around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level convergence along a weak cold front
is anticipated in this area as well. The resulting combination of
lift, instability, and modest shear (i.e. around 35 kt of effective
bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears
to be the most prominent hazard, but some clustering could lead to a
few strong gusts as well. Presence of a surface low and potential
backed low-level flow will result in a low-probability tornado risk
as well.

...Eastern SD to northeast MN...
Steep lapse rates atop moderate low-level moisture will support
moderate to strong buoyancy along a weak front zone forecast to
extend from eastern SD into north-central MN this afternoon.
Low-level convergence along the front will be modest, with warm low
to mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) likely keeping
storm coverage isolated. Mid-level flow will be modest across most
of the region, but the strong buoyancy could still result in an
isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds with any storms
that develop. A relatively higher severe potential exists across
northeast NM, where stronger mid-level flow through southern
peripheral of a shortwave trough moving over far northwest Ontario
will be in place this evening.

...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC...
A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift
northwestward today, reaching the NC/VA border area by this
afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement through its northwest
periphery will promote potential for strong to marginally severe
gusts with any sustained convection. However, the more buoyant air
is expected to remain offshore and displaced east of this stronger
low-level flow, thermodynamically limiting the spatial extent of any
severe threat. Meager surface-based instability may glance the coast
from later this morning through the afternoon before low-level wind
fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171255
SWODY1
SPC AC 171254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late
afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and
Great Plains. The most likely corridor is from the Raton Mesa into
the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe
gusts, and a brief tornado are possible.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad cyclone centered over
WY and another more defined cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic. Modest
ridging exists between these cyclones from the southern Plains
through the Mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. The
eastern cyclone is forecast to devolve into an open wave throughout
the day while gradually lifting northeastward. Several shortwave
troughs are forecast to rotate around the western cyclone while it
shifts eastward into more of NE/SD and deepens slightly.

Recent surface analysis reveals a weak front extending from a low
over the northern TX Panhandle north-northeastward to another weak
low over northwest KS and then more northeastward across central NE
into southwest MN. Portion of this front across KS and NE is
forecast to slowly push eastward/southeastward today while
consolidation into a more define and deeper surface low occurs
across northeast NE and southeast SD.

...South-central High Plains...
The shortwave trough currently rotating southward through western WY
is forecast to continue south/south-southeastward today. Lift
preceding this shortwave will contribute to thunderstorm development
within the buoyant post-frontal airmass across southeast CO and
northeast NM (in the Raton Mesa vicinity) during the late
afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger mid-level flow will
accompany this shortwave as well, resulting in moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. Buoyancy will be modest, with the stronger buoyancy
anticipated ahead of the cold front, but the combination of buoyancy
and shear over the region should still be sufficient for organized
updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some
potential for this activity to interact with the western portion of
the cold front that is expected to arc back west/northwest across
the TX/OK Panhandles into far northeast NM/southeast CO. If this
occurs, the easterly surface winds and increased vorticity along the
boundary could result in a localized area of low-probability tornado risk.

...Southeast NE...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest OK...Eastern TX
Panhandle...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of the cold
front extending across the region. At least one MCV is noted within
this precipitation over far north-central KS. Cloud cover associated
with this precipitation will likely delay heating across much of KS
and NE, leading to some uncertainty whether the airmass will
destabilize ahead of the cold front later this afternoon.
Destabilization looks more probable from central KS across the
eastern TX Panhandle and northeast OK. This entire region will be on
the eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, with the
modest shear supportive of some strong to severe storms capable of
damaging gusts and isolated hail in areas where the airmass destabilizes.

...IA and southern MN...
Forcing for ascent is expected to spread across the region from the
southwest as a shortwave trough rotates through the broader
troughing over the northern/central Plains. Like areas farther
southwest, cloud cover and limited diurnal heating results in
uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization. Even so, some
guidance shows strong heating, deep mixing, and destabilization
ahead of the approaching shortwave. This could result in some
high-based storm capable of damaging downbursts. However, the
overall conditionality of this scenario precludes introducing any
severe probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211246
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon
across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across a broad portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and also from the
mid Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of western/central OK and western north TX in association with a weak
MCV and modest low-level warm/moist advection. Convectively
reinforced outflow from this morning activity should be draped
along/near the Red River this afternoon, with a rich low-level
moisture present to its south. Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow
should gradually strengthen through the day across north TX/southern
OK as a weak mid-level perturbation moves southeastward from the southern/central High Plains. A favorable combination of moderate
instability aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and
daytime heating, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, will
likely prove favorable for thunderstorm organization. Most guidance
suggests multiple thunderstorms will develop and become
supercellular this afternoon across parts of north TX and southern
OK. Scattered severe hail should be the main threat with this
convection as it spreads southeastward through the early evening.
Strengthening MLCIN with time this evening should result in a
weakening trend as this activity approaches the DFW metroplex, but
isolated large hail and gusty winds will remain possible until
convection dissipates. Given increased confidence in supercells
developing, have added a focused Slight Risk for large hail with
this update.

Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward today across the central Plains into the Ozarks and
mid MS Valley. One notable MCV with ongoing convection is also noted
this morning across central KS. Filtered diurnal heating should aid
in the development of weak to locally moderate instability this
afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across
northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm
sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest
enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated
hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some
potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early
evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow
will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on
the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper
Midwest. Recent visible satellite imagery across these regions show
generally widespread cloudiness, which may hinder diurnal
destabilization to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also
expected to remain rather poor (reference ILX/ILN/DTX observed 12Z
soundings). Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still
appears possible that isolated damaging winds could occur with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and spread generally east-northeastward. This activity should quickly weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern
ND into MN today. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in
the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early
evening from southwest MN into adjacent southeast SD, northeast NE,
and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Cool
temperatures aloft, weak to moderate instability, and effective bulk
shear around 25-35 kt should support multicells and perhaps a couple
splitting supercells. Hail is expected to the primary severe hazard
with any thunderstorms that can be sustained, but confidence in this
occurring before this evening is low.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221242
SWODY1
SPC AC 221240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging
winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift
slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper
ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these
two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly
mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective
development today and tonight across portions of the
southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest,
and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes.

...Southern/Central Plains...
With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and
weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon,
robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains
will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the
east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High
Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints
forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass
will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability
extending from western KS southeastward into OK.

It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly
low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with
most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation
occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level
winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer
shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current
expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat,
with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered
severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection
grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS.
This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of
western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially
supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the
Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed
based on latest guidance trends.

...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into
western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an
isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward
across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the
development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the
Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft
associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will
tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector.
Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern
IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat
for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds
with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form
late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity.
Greater instability should be present across this region compared to
locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to
support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this
activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this
evening as clustering occurs.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are
expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered
daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to
scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a
greater concentration of strong convection across parts of
central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early
evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A
Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased
confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region
is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper
trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great
Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak
perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid
initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for strong to severe wind gusts.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 230600
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid
Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all
severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the
Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are
possible over the Mid Atlantic.

...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas...
A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern
Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features
embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over
the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight.
Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide
in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across
the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will
likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40
kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will
be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible
through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal
destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless,
outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an
east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the
developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK.

As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is
expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F
surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support
rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface
trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete
supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some
hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from
eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and
lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally
significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple
point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into
western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and
the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally
stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be
needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and
destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear.

Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early
overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk
for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may
persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead
of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm
development which may limit instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians
toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours.

...Central TX...
As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will
continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX
overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will
pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft.
Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms
along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231225
SWODY1
SPC AC 231223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low near the
NV/UT/AZ border and model guidance shows this feature moving east
into southern CO by late tonight. Southerly low-level flow is
forecast to gradually increase through the evening and aid in
moisture advecting northward from south-central TX (12.5 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio via the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob) into
northwest TX and southern OK. Models continue to show only weak lee cyclogenesis, but the pronounced increase of a LLJ and associated
low-level warm advection will aid in storm development and focus
severe potential late this afternoon but especially into the
evening/overnight.

A southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend from the TX
South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon. The stronger
heating and moisture increase will likely set up along and south of
the boundary. The latest forecast soundings suggest supercells
capable of a threat for large hail will be the primary risk from the
TX South Plains northeast into southwest OK during the evening.
Some enlargement of the hodograph and moistening low levels could
yield an isolated risk for a tornado, in addition to localized
severe gusts with the stronger storms. An increase in convective
coverage is expected through the late evening as the LLJ and
associated warm advection promote clustering and messy storm modes
with time, coincident with a waning overall severe threat into the
overnight.

Farther west, diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer
proximity to the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies.
An isolated risk for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with
this activity before subsiding during the evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/23/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241220
SWODY1
SPC AC 241218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...Texas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO. This upper feature
is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains
by daybreak Saturday. A belt of moderately strong southwesterly
500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over
Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX. Morning
surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the
Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and
northward through western OK. An ill-defined cold front extends
from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM. The northwestern rim
of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface
dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and
into the eastern TX Panhandle.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this
morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist
advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX.
The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift
slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists
through the period. A somewhat nebulous boundary (best
characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will
probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected
to develop later today. Some modest heating in wake of early
showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite
rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover. A gradual
development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this
afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles
favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm
mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms
of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this
time. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of
TX by early Saturday morning.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX-LA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the
southern High Plains and it is forecast to move east across much of
OK by early Sunday morning. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow (40-60 kt)
will move through the base of the larger scale trough over TX and
eventually moving into the lower MS Valley. An ongoing MCS across
southwestern LA and the northwest Gulf of America will likely
progress eastward across southern LA through early afternoon. An
isolated risk for damaging gusts (55-65 mph) and a brief tornado may
continue east but be increasingly confined to the coastal parishes
as the squall line's eastward movement outpaces appreciable inland destabilization.

High uncertainty is apparent farther west across central into east
and coastal portions of TX. Earlier shower/thunderstorm activity
across much of the mid and upper coastal plain of TX has rendered
substantial convective overturning of the airmass from the coastal
plain northwestward towards the I-35 corridor north of a composite
outflow boundary. Models vary regarding destabilization and this
signal in model data is congruent with forecaster experience in
placing low confidence in potential storm evolution later this
afternoon into the evening across central and east TX. Nonetheless,
there will probably exist a window of opportunity for diurnal
destabilization arcing around the south and west portions of the
mesoscale surface high. Some forecast soundings show moderate
instability in the presence of strong mid to high-level westerly flow---supporting supercells and storm organization with
accompanying potential for damaging gusts.

Have adjusted the northern bounds of tornado probabilities farther
south in closer proximity to richer moisture, and removed 15-percent
hail probabilities across southeast TX and LA where lapse rates will
likely remain stunted through early Sunday morning. The tornado
risk correspondingly will tend to favor any supercell development in
proximity to richer moisture and mesovortex structures within parent
QLCSs, but low confidence exists regarding this forecast given
aforementioned convective-related concerns.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale
ascent will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the
coast of Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado risk could develop
near the immediate coast and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible as cells move inland. Farther east into parts of southeast
Washington and far northeast Oregon, thunderstorm development will
be possible late this afternoon with perhaps isolated severe gusts
associated with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261220
SWODY1
SPC AC 261219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today along
portions of the central Gulf Coast. The primary hazards are a
couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts. A risk for a few stronger
storms may linger tonight near the coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
IR satellite and lightning data this morning show a linear cluster
of strong to severe thunderstorms extending northward from the
continental shelf waters northward into southeast LA and southern
MS. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows the thunderstorm activity is
located within a low-level warm conveyor to the southeast of a mid-
to upper-level cyclone over OK.

Surface observations at 12 UTC this morning show the northward
extent of rich low-level moisture (i.e., 68-72 deg F dewpoints) is
confined south of a maritime warm front that is draped
west-northwest near the LA/MS border to the east-southeast and to
the south of the FL Panhandle. A persistent fetch of southerly
low-level confluent flow off the Gulf will maintain adequate
buoyancy despite the presence of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Enlarged hodographs and moist/weakly buoyant
profiles will support intermittent supercell structure with the
stronger updrafts through the morning. An attendant risk for a
couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts will likely continue
through the morning and perhaps midday hours before a possible
waning in storm intensity later today. As the upper system over OK
this morning migrates eastward across the Ozarks, a re-invigoration
of storm intensity may occur tonight in southern AL into the FL
Panhandle. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado could develop.

Elsewhere across the Lower 48, quiescent conditions for severe
thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/26/2025

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