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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0774

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 13 12:46:39 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 131246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131246=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-131445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0774
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0746 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC into southeast VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131246Z - 131445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat may
    persist through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning across
    eastern NC into southeast VA. Weak instability (MLCAPE generally 500
    J/kg or less) is limiting updraft intensity, with lightning
    primarily confined to somewhat deeper convection near the NC coast.
    However, to the east of the slow-moving midlevel cyclone centered
    over western TN/KY, rather strong low-level flow continues to be
    noted on the KMHX and KAKQ VWPs, supporting effective SRH of 150-200
    m2/s2. Small cells with occasional rotation have persisted from
    northeast NC into far southeast VA, and some localized threat for a
    brief tornado and wind damage could persist through the morning with
    these smaller cells.=20

    Farther south, an extensive convective cluster is ongoing off the NC
    coast, with some evidence of an MCV south of Morehead City. This
    cluster could spread northward toward the immediate coast and Outer
    Banks with time, with embedded cells potentially posing a threat of
    strong gusts and a brief tornado, especially where surface dewpoints
    remain near 70 F this morning.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LtAqqwFQ8LDaAo7V-cmO5WHTV6F4ymXVklJwpK1oCwP0XB0_4RI4TYFSVI7mETQP2nkNL0SG= SXbOtCeBRloo3NyVyY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 34337728 35347780 37077776 37727730 37707663 37337571
    36567549 35807518 35197530 34817576 34597642 34337728=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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