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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0772

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 13 06:41:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 130640
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130640=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-130915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0772
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 130640Z - 130915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat may
    persist overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection are ongoing from
    northeast SC into eastern NC early this morning. This activity will
    continue to be aided by a shortwave trough that is moving
    northeastward around the periphery of a persistent mid/upper-level
    cyclone centered over parts of the Mid-South/TN Valley. Rather
    strong low-level flow (with 35-45 kt at 1-2 km AGL per recent
    objective analyses and VWPs from KLTX, KRAX, and KMHX) will continue
    to enlarge hodographs, with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.=20

    Weak lapse rates/buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will continue
    to be a general limiting factor for severe potential. However, given
    the relatively favorable low-level wind profiles, MLCAPE approaching
    500 J/kg within a moist environment could support occasional
    transient supercell structures, with some localized brief-tornado
    and wind-damage potential through the overnight.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cFqA6gCY4fEeQsUCDBU-vBKYwVwzfu6f3p417G4rq4mTANeMKOetZh6Jr5Ored2lj-ppqxOI= ftq0jcWRUVqqC3qyqQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34747913 35397896 35627843 36097715 35907608 35237551
    34907589 34397669 34067719 33887752 33547815 33747851
    33997880 34747913=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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