ACUS11 KWNS 112235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112234=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-120030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Areas affected...parts of northern UT...western WY and southwest MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

Valid 112234Z - 120030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered high-based showers and storms will remain
capable of damaging gusts to 60-80 mph this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms have developed
across WW245 this afternoon. Numerous reports of severe/damaging
gusts have been noted over UT and ID so far indicating an
environment supportive of severe gusts. This is expected to continue
as storms gradually expand northeastward into western WY and
southern MT this evening with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40+ kt of
effective shear.

While some redevelopment is possible farther south through this
evening, decreasing MU and DCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis indicate some
air mass overturning has occurred across southern portions of the
watch in northern UT. This may limit the best storm coverage to area
farther north, but given the environment remains broadly favorable,
severe gusts remain possible over much of the watch area this
evening.

..Lyons.. 05/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5xNl_3VQiZvc6BScSwF3rKkfN-n3E8mqzLFddT_cmAHVaFrrCCt28Yh9pOjH3LDbQXTp3zAp_= aU5dXusEuwD5FVwsrM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 40861390 44251326 45111060 44900833 43710908 43370924
40861102 40431136 40631276 40861390=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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