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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0768

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 11 21:57:55 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 112157
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112157=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0768
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0457 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

    Areas affected...central and eastern Montana into western North
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 112157Z - 120000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts possible across central and eastern
    Montana into western North Dakota this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A few storm clusters have developed this evening, one
    in north-central Montana and another in southeast Montana. A very
    deeply mixed environment ahead of this activity will support severe
    wind gusts. These winds will be most likely in a belt from
    north-central Montana to northeast Montana and another across
    southeast Montana into western North Dakota.=20

    MLCAPE is only around 500 to 750 J/kg, but is sufficient to support strengthening convection a some additional storms.=20

    The most likely corridor for a watch is the southeast Montana
    corridor where the region of greater instability is larger and where temperatures are warmer (away from the cloudcover). In addition, the
    HRRR has a consistent signal showing 70-80 mph surface wind gusts
    from the convection that is currently in southeast Montana as it
    moves northeast and eventually into western North Dakota. Additional
    convection developing across far southeast Montana may also pose a
    severe wind threat as it congeals and moves north-east/north this
    evening.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7VOOLc0vCYcTJG8WOH65nhW9U6ZBsynWkUzhmLnfRS6VvBHHVBtRFfbldL1U_vyidCBmpNwBw= BM2_Fy59Ngvp82K1ZA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 49110182 47530198 46050267 45860393 45150514 44870784
    45550932 46201120 46851177 47691158 49101033 49060400
    49110182=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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