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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0767

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 11 19:22:15 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 111922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111921=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-112145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0767
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

    Areas affected...central Florida northward toward southeast Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111921Z - 112145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage throughout the
    afternoon from the central Florida Peninsula into northeast Florida
    and southeast Georgia.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are currently increasing east of Tampa to west
    of Okeechobee where strong heating has led to strong instability.
    The southerly flow regime should support a north/northeast movement
    to this development, affecting the remainder of central into
    northeastern Florida. Breaks in the clouds in those downstream areas
    are developing, and this should further increase instability.
    Although temperatures aloft are not as cool as previous days, MUCAPE
    over 2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will support
    cellular storm mode with sporadic hail > 1.00" expected. Locally
    strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as well, especially
    with any merging outflows.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6atlFS_U_R9U-WQAGkEgZvudE0NSTOss9VaiylKX0nr2kTbfvbn5zI91JSqkFRdpTDSSvWAvl= ocHfEtTfEps0fog9Y0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27158103 27348165 27658206 28098211 30438218 30958218
    31328183 31328151 31148134 30518136 29698113 29078080
    28408044 27888038 27308059 27158103=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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