ACUS11 KWNS 111840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111839=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Areas affected...eastern Idaho into western Wyoming and southwest
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111839Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity
from eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, with both hail and gust
potential.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection continue to increase in intensity
over the upper Snake River Plain, with both strong heating and
low-level warm advection ahead of it. Continued steepening of
deep-layer lapse rates as the upper trough moves in the from the
west and more heating should support further strengthening of this
convection. Strong deep-layer shear will favor hail production with
these storms over eastern ID. A brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled
out with the stronger cells this afternoon, as low-level stretching
is maximized.

Farther north toward the Bitterroots, stronger cooling aloft is
occurring, and areas of heating persist ahead of this activity as
well. Long hodographs and cold midlevel temperatures will favor hail
with these storms through the day.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ytLs9mT4wchIrSst-5jyvnWuwOfCtk73Fy0eNH30hX8uZCx7T0bSQwGEA68qDEXzkwuDrHJS= pnzUeS6j34mP6Si9Qs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 42041299 42051382 42701393 43631329 44321328 45071381
45711419 46261407 46871302 46801187 46511101 45681004
45310990 44360984 42881087 42041299=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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