ACUS11 KWNS 111300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111259=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Areas affected...FL Panhandle/north FL into southeast AL...south
GA...and southern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111259Z - 111500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for strong to locally severe storms may
increase through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing this morning from
southeast GA into the FL Panhandle. Other than an MCS now moving off
the Carolina coast, convection has largely been disorganized thus
far. However, modest diurnal heating/destabilization could lead to
increasingly vigorous storms with time this morning. Some increase
in deep-layer flow/shear is also possible as a vorticity maximum
rotates around a midlevel low centered over LA.=20

Locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail could accompany the
stronger storms through the morning. Effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2
could also support at least transient supercell structures, with
localized tornado potential, especially from the FL Panhandle into
adjacent parts of southeast AL and south GA.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!53ItzktLc8XWAHJpiBllPU9cPCGM-Y-UP-UG9lJPWCJplCTlNsdf3OhaGrKrrVqgDWWqPr5SE= IsrTl3i7sXZuk0IGQo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31788641 31978448 32518218 32698132 32868047 32128049
31308136 30688165 30358196 30138240 29848374 29468505
29728594 29908620 30148676 30608672 31078661 31788641=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)