ACUS11 KWNS 102026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102026=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Areas affected...The Snake River Plains of Idaho...and southwestern
and central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102026Z - 102230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts, possibly exceeding 70 mph, will
be possible within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Snake
River Plain and Rocky Mountains, into central MT.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed into the low 80s
across MT this afternoon under the northern fringe of an upper-level
ridge. The latest visible satellite and radar imagery shows a small
cluster of moist convection becoming more widespread over the Rocky
Mountains near the MT/ID border via orographic ascent within a low
to mid-level theta-e ridge axis. Additional development was also
noted near the Snake River Plain. Very steep low-level lapse rates
and a well mixed boundary layer are in place here, yielding DCAPE
values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Evaporative cooling under high cloud
bases in this environment will support isolated severe wind gusts
through late this afternoon as thunderstorms become more numerous
across the region. However, it's currently unclear how widespread
the severe potential will be. A weather watch remains possible, but
does not appear likely at this time given the isolated threat. The
potential for severe wind gusts will shift northeastward later this
evening into more of central MT, with storm interactions/mergers
possible.

..Barnes/Mosier.. 05/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Q1iz7Cw3ADipQ5U7ri0SDFB-f-PfeARy9JwTSwummOCcrknVwviavzU10sgMkB56Av9iwRSZ= jMCLChqr_5yaWKbQP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 42881450 43421440 44931425 45051423 45531417 46021409
46391395 46631361 46781333 46871310 46921292 47101251
47561102 47441019 47160970 46750944 46480951 46100984
45741046 45431095 44771125 44261131 43441155 42711203
42471251 42341298 42401371 42581432 42881450=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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