ACUS11 KWNS 101810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101810=20
FLZ000-102045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Areas affected...interior Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101810Z - 102045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely spread north from central into northern
Florida. Sporadic hail and locally strong downbursts will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Heating of a moist air mass has led to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms that initiated close
to the sea breeze have rapidly moves northward with primary cluster
east of Tampa. Although shear is not very strong, favorable time of
day along with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates should continue
to support strong updrafts, and localized hail and severe gusts may
occur. This activity may reach northern FL later this afternoon,
where outflow has temporarily stabilized the air mass.

In addition, a large area of storms is currently located about 50
miles west of Tampa, and continues to push east with indications of
large-scale outflow, which may affect the west coast with wind later
today.

..Jewell.. 05/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YaE8IEWb6Wa3X04iaoiqGQOuz8WOKv7g1yYIDSl9F2cdtSdVUlSu_rxyPnPyN8_FDI51cf-T= kXAeyuX5E65dEA7yHg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 27438112 26828164 26768224 27298265 27928287 28568271
28968263 29288252 29528227 29638191 29598153 29408134
29198125 28618116 27728108 27438112=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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