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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0758

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 10 14:42:37 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 101442
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101442=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0758
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0942 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

    Areas affected...much of the Florida Panhandle into southeast
    Alabama and southwest Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101442Z - 101545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage and intensity
    during the day, and a few may produce severe weather including
    brief/weak tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over southern AL
    into the western FL Panhandle, with a cold front extending south
    from the low into the northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, visible satellite
    imagery shows heating is occurring ahead of the front, in the area
    of a diffuse warm front near the FL/AL/GA border.

    Cells just offshore already show mesocyclones, and the onshore
    environment is already favorable with a deep moist boundary layer
    and 0-1 SRH from 150-250 m2/s2. Although most of the convection is
    currently well offshore, continued heating along with the presence
    of the cold front should help focus further development today, at
    least in an isolated sense. The air mass should continue to recover
    northward into most of southern GA and more of eastern AL with time
    as well, expanding the threat area northward.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-3bFkraihnZUVqc-0_RMc1eStoiAj3ImWuK4dk7DONpoCihz_k1gZa2KoM_Dt91wlEEt__Qe= KGztVuMlMJ3-zg9sTw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30298627 30608634 31038629 31588610 31868566 32228486
    32218421 31898358 30898332 30438329 30028339 29828362
    30008398 29888426 29548500 29618536 29918551 30168592
    30298627=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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