ACUS11 KWNS 101258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101258=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-101430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0757
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Areas affected...North FL into far southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101258Z - 101430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS has moved inland across the FL Big
Bend region this morning. This system has generally been subsevere
thus far since moving inland and has shown signs of weakening, but
filtered downstream heating of a moist airmass will result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg with time this morning. This could allow some intensification as the remnant storm cluster approaches northeast
FL, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds. Storms
developing ahead of this cluster could also approach severe limits
through the morning.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_m5hJA7T8w6Ht_73YOR1WrVIps42l_HNrfox-c9Vu922zSmNQn2GUJe_uHZiSRaFRDWHAzEHj= x6c9RfOEFj4kXNMCVQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29698296 30588205 31028161 31008129 30318123 30018120
29718114 29528125 29448161 29368196 29318228 29278265
29698296=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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