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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0756

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 10 12:09:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 101209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101208=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-101415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0756
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0708 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into far southeast AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101208Z - 101415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized tornado and wind-damage threat may spread
    eastward this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster with embedded supercells is
    moving eastward this morning across the FL Panhandle, to the east of
    a surface low near Mobile Bay. Occasional upticks in rotation have
    been noted over the last hour as cells interact with a frontal zone
    that is very gradually moving northward across the area. Some
    additional northward progression of the front is possible through
    the morning, aided by the onset of modest diurnal heating downstream
    of ongoing convection. This would increase the area across the
    peninsula where an organized severe threat could evolve over the
    next 2-3 hours. A supercell currently south of Fort Walton Beach
    could pose a threat if it moves onshore, and additional cell
    development is possible within developing convection west of Panama
    City.=20

    Near and south of the front, favorable low-level moisture and
    veering wind profiles (with effective SRH increasing above 100
    m2/s2) will continue to support localized tornado and wind-damage
    potential with any sustained supercells.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_lDzdllUzb8AOgtdI-Hr5klyp0v6Ccfq65h2QY5wXf9M77VYlHAIpnzWWelo6PyjMGcJH8LN5= 4YNQqBBuaebAJl7WPs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30988675 31098553 30998502 30578490 30018483 29938486
    29758499 29538529 29608559 29758590 29898630 29988670
    30198700 30988675=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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