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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0754

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 9 18:30:01 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 091829
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091829=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-092000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0754
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

    Areas affected...central and eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091829Z - 092000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and some large hail may
    accompany the stronger storms initiating off of sea-breeze
    boundaries this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is deepening along the shoreline of the
    eastern FL Peninsula with a developing, westward progressing
    sea-breeze boundary, which should serve as the impetus for
    convective initiation over the next couple of hours. These storms
    are poised to develop atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer,
    characterized by 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates amid 70 F surface
    dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. In addition
    to adequate buoyancy supporting strong thunderstorm updrafts,
    glancing stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north will support 30+
    kts of effective bulk shear and some potential for storm
    organization. Multicells are the expected mode of convection,
    accompanied by strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if widespread, intense convection
    becomes apparent.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8uP9F2KWnn16NVG1EmaPki4-ZlgU0Aq38jlz2B6OmYNoplnq69G61Nqgx3zqMmjV8XkINRZoa= wbJ2UrtricrtLpjHOw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27098153 28348194 29218206 29878203 30608200 30808193
    30878170 30708145 29968132 29258100 28648064 27998044
    27318011 26898005 26658027 26678108 27098153=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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