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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0751

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 9 02:26:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 090225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090225=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-090330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0751
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0925 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

    Areas affected...Central SC into eastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090225Z - 090330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage late this evening
    across parts of SC/NC. A watch is not currently anticipated, but
    trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively slow-moving but mature MCS is tracking
    eastward across central NC. The outflow boundary associated with
    this convection has proceeded out ahead of the updrafts, suggesting
    a slow weakening will occur. Nevertheless, mesoscale organization
    may continue to result in gusty winds along the line for another 1-2
    hours.

    The surface outflow boundary extends southwestward into northern SC.
    Southeasterly low-level winds to the south of the boundary will
    maintain a moist and unstable air mass in this region, where
    relatively steep mid-level lapse rates are present. Most CAM
    guidance suggests that thunderstorms will increase in coverage along
    the outflow boundary during the next couple of hours. Given the
    unstable conditions and favorable deep-layer shear profiles, there
    will remain some severe threat through the early morning period.=20
    However, it is unclear whether this threat will warrant a new severe thunderstorm watch, given continued diurnal cooling. Trends will be
    monitored.

    ..Hart/Smith.. 05/09/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_J3iodonizYkoyDBgYc5W6_wseIvUh70iSTgphtCU3kaMcDCmkvnnqpDO_1Nk4oO-4_TWCmH= TAKySaMVz8FQKmDiD0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 34498216 34808034 35277945 35937901 35807826 34987804
    34047857 33567952 33448110 33558263 34268320 34498216=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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