ACUS11 KWNS 090220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090219=20
TXZ000-090315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...parts of deep south Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...243...

Valid 090219Z - 090315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241, 243
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind and hail risk continues across WW 241
and 243. Two more organized bows may pose a locally greater risk for
a significant gust or two of 70-80 mph.

DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC, prior supercells and severe storm
clusters over the Rio Grande Valley and southern TX have gradually
grown upscale this evening. Two stronger bowing segments have
materialized with recent near-severe gusts observed across Duval
County. CRP/BRO radar cross sections show increasingly deep cold
pools and hints of descending rear-inflow jets within these storms.
This suggests further upscale growth into a QLCS is likely over the
next couple of hours as convection approaches the coast. With
moderate buoyancy from SPC mesoanalyis (2000 J/kg MLCAPE 00z BRO
RAOB), and 50-55 kt of effective shear observed from the BRO/CRP
VADs, storms will likely remain highly organized as they track
toward the Gulf Coast. Damaging winds are the most prominent threat,
thought some hail will remain possible given the degree of buoyancy
and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. The two bowing segment
may also pose a risk for an isolated significant gust upwards of 75
mph given increasingly strong cold pools and more organized linear
structures.

..Lyons.. 05/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cn97H-5oziPUfj0CwqJXqbI6Bh2xrhFLSk0pCc26OaNHnkCs0mTq6rBrDzhDVFPZb3iBZf6f= 8L_0SKTUyszbl9eQI8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 28549839 28699773 28539662 28129679 27409733 26909735
26329742 26299821 26749918 27059938 27609898 28549839=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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