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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0747

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 8 22:26:27 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 082225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082225=20
    TXZ000-090000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0747
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

    Areas affected...pars of the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

    Valid 082225Z - 090000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells
    persist across the Watch area. Hail and isolated damaging winds
    remain likely this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, scattered strong to severe storms were
    ongoing across much of the Rio Grande Valley and south TX. Several
    supercells were noted across Zapata/Jim Hogg and Dimmit Counties.
    The environment ahead of these storms, and additional storms
    crossing the border, remains broadly favorable for severe weather
    with 40-50 kt of effective shear and 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Hail
    remains the primary severe risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and
    the supercell mode. However, some clustering has been noted along
    the diffuse front farther north. This should continue into the
    evening as noted by some CAMS. This may support a greater risk for
    damaging winds across the Rio Grande Valley and south TX into
    tonight. Given the ongoing storms, and additional development
    crossing the border through the next few hours, the severe risk will
    continue across much of WW241.

    ..Lyons.. 05/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6tBW5IS4AwoX1sK0cQxSNBYbQ7BnGSFBN7CVt7OXaX9dwF4caNezlmIHAMP9vTw2NP-NIBw9q= W1Cx3QYMbV26TTo85o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

    LAT...LON 29620133 29800055 29679978 28769874 27379829 26479782
    25979744 25889775 26189907 26709934 28130036 29330112
    29620133=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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