ACUS11 KWNS 081903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081903=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-082030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...southern Kentucky...middle Tennessee...northeast
Mississippi and northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...239...

Valid 081903Z - 082030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238, 239
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell development/intensification underway. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed across northern
Tennessee into central Kentucky. These storms have a history of 1 to
1.75 inch hail thus far. The environment downstream of these
supercells continues to destabilize which will maintain the threat
through the afternoon and evening.

Farther south, additional storms have started to develop from
southern Tennessee into northeast Mississippi. Temperatures are not
as cold aloft, but temperatures are warmer (upper 70s to low 80s)
which has sufficiently compensated to support 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (per
SPC mesoanalysis). Given the stronger deep-layer shear across this
region (~40 knots) beneath the mid-level jet core, expect these
storms to become supercellular with a large hail and damaging wind
threat. These storms may have the greatest threat for isolated 2+
inch hail given the more favorable wind profile.=20

Severe thunderstorm watch 238 was expanded into northeast
Mississippi and severe thunderstorm watch 239 was recently issued
across northern Alabama to address this threat farther south.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ToJJMbUR61lq-VeJblRJC_GxnWFNK0DkbZ-KJ1pT-bePbR-vGW-Zt3nw1aqoJVGeTOCCWf_x= clwCIhAzjU_LyYCFdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33548933 34438901 35568901 36528864 37698737 37668499
37078467 34788628 33708732 33228845 33228880 33548933=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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