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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0736

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 7 23:46:30 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 072346
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072345=20
    OKZ000-080115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0736
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0645 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025

    Areas affected...Central to eastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072345Z - 080115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Shallow convection developing across central to eastern
    Oklahoma will be capable of producing hail up to severe limits. This
    threat is expected to remain fairly isolated and short-lived; watch
    issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have been percolating across
    central/northern OK over the past few hours, but have recently
    experienced a slight uptick in intensity as they migrate
    southeastward into a somewhat more strongly sheared environment.
    Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates indicate that effective shear
    values around 35 knots are in place across eastern OK, which may
    allow for sufficient storm organization to produce hail stones of
    around one inch. The thermodynamic environment is largely being
    driven by diurnally-driven surface temperatures in the 70s beneath
    cold temperatures aloft associated with an upper low over the
    region. MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg will likely be the buoyancy
    zenith with a gradual reduction in MLCAPE expected with the onset of
    the early evening transition in the next 1-2 hours. Consequently,
    the overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively localized
    and short-lived, and will not require watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4X38q4FAP1w4m4jwg_QCKAsuKnVt8Ab_pS-VMBX8ORjp0aefXzD30lt3dUOjhvyCiXRj5xwcq= kJeEJzBzvUrx8WbbY4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35919845 36019818 36619643 36759588 36689548 36429509
    36189483 35849461 35459446 34979456 34729491 34719563
    35379835 35629850 35919845=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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