ACUS11 KWNS 071822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071822=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-071945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Areas affected...northern parts of the Florida Peninsula into
extreme southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071822Z - 071945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong wind gust or instance of hail cannot be ruled out
with any of the stronger storms. The severe threat should be quite
isolated at best, precluding a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop and/or intensify
amid a destabilizing airmass, with surface temperatures warming to
over 90 F, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates
are quite poor, and regional VADS depict short hodographs, which
indicate mediocre vertical wind shear. As such, the severe threat
should remain quite sparse, with no WW issuance expected. Still,
strong enough surface heating and associated low-level lapse rates
may foster organized strong thunderstorms that may produce a strong
wind gust or brief instance of hail.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4k9iiZQu8n46NYGUBwgrccOUUdmNz7ervFWjqDtoPO472krF8OrjO8VTIHMFW_jZgZcrCeai9= q5SqgmjM0qsYEzUEKQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28198195 28628226 29478244 30558227 30888205 30928163
30488141 29858135 29208100 28808082 28408098 28148120
28058146 28198195=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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