ACUS11 KWNS 061928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061927=20
FLZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061927Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat could develop this afternoon across
the FL Peninsula, where a stray damaging gust or instance of hail
are possible. However, the severe threat should be isolated at best,
precluding a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has aided in thunderstorm
initiation across the FL Peninsula as temperatures have climbed over
90 F. Given at least upper 60s F dewpoints steep low-level lapse
rates, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE are in place south of a remnant frontal
boundary per 19Z mesoanalysis. Synoptic forcing is weak and vertical
wind shear is quite poor, casting doubt on any appreciable severe
threat. However, if a robust thunderstorm manages to develop and
persist, the strong buoyancy in place may support an instance of
hail or strong wind gusts, especially over southern parts of the
Florida Peninsula. Given the very isolated nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8PSZRnezr89yV1geYB4FX5OKPXKzkURwUgICWe-Wg8iHhcUV0d-HrAnv3rp7_wfm8xWO3FH7h= z51yGlWFueRpi85KGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 25308083 26188173 27448225 29118239 29718163 29658121
28658070 27498028 26578015 25948017 25438037 25308083=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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