ACUS11 KWNS 061844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061843=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-062015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey
and southern New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

Valid 061843Z - 062015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and hail remain the primary
threats across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ample diurnal heating has supporting boundary layer destabilization and subsequent development of multiple bands of
thunderstorms ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Damaging gusts and
hail (some stones approaching 1 inch in diameter) have been reported
with some of the stronger storms. Given the presence of 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding ongoing
storms, additional strong wind gusts and instances of hail remain
possible through the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5wNvyntBbepG5xQSCWmRzXBu6EVFGxYbaijdAlXDpovbP6M0qiyZbgEkuUUfaYUVx1wgsTqB= nqljnu0rBpwY7pn2OI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39747698 40447694 41847679 42467662 42717597 42767521
42317466 41007440 40217468 39737530 39617595 39747698=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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