ACUS11 KWNS 061111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061111=20
TXZ000-061415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...South-central into east-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

Valid 061111Z - 061415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
continues.

SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat is expected with time
this morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely later this morning,
though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in convection has recently been noted
across parts of the TX Hill Country, in close proximity to a surface
warm front that is expected to lift northward through the morning
across parts of south-central into east-central TX. Favorable
deep-layer shear and low-level SRH (as noted on the KEWX VWP) will
result in supercell potential through the morning, especially as the
warm front moves northward and rich low-level moisture continues to
support moderate to locally strong buoyancy.=20

Timing of additional supercell development and maturation within the warm-advection regime remains somewhat uncertain, as does the
potential influence of an ongoing eastward-moving storm cluster near
San Angelo. However, as the threat for surface-based supercells
increases, a corresponding increase in the tornado threat is
expected with time this morning, in addition to potential for large
hail and locally damaging winds. A Tornado Watch will likely be
needed later this morning, though timing is uncertain.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_yVGZbK8-bfmwqLF_gfGzlpTtFiuUQa7QIOn34tSPmps1MCbesbpWPVg6_y-ajPXP-sue364B= TXwKOh_nC3zVTR9tj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30109969 30469938 31789706 31789594 31279547 30499537
30219581 29779648 29509720 29339823 29329926 30109969=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)