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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0709

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 6 04:31:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 060431
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060430=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-060630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0709
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

    Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

    Valid 060430Z - 060630Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway
    across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity. A few cells may
    undergo considerable further intensification accompanied by
    increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong
    tornado or two.

    DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm
    development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is
    focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a
    surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where
    boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew
    points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the
    southwest of Midland/Odessa. This is contributing to mixed-layer
    CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

    With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection
    rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to
    undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer
    shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along
    a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb). This
    environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense
    supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong
    tornado or two.

    ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TOmZZPXC3XBLfIfq4w1WRqpMA2YViFRIIXPv5AdeDn31_t-CImUOn8TOcXIstnJlHnyU1bEw= 5EHMe5dD4Ov1NPApRA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270
    30760382 31330385 31890394=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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