ACUS11 KWNS 052316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052315=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

Concerning...Tornado Watch 227...

Valid 052315Z - 060115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues.

SUMMARY...Intensifying supercells possible, initially posing a risk
for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, then increasing
potential for a couple of tornadoes, by 8-9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture across the Pecos Valley remains
largely characterized by relatively modest surface dew points in the
middle 50s F, including an ongoing westward surge across and
west/northwest of Fort Stockton. In the presence of very steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, this appears to be contributing
to rapid destabilization, including CAPE increasing in excess of
2000 J/kg through this evening, east through north of the Davis
Mountains into areas south of Hobbs NM.

Beneath strong difluent mid/upper flow, to the east of a slow moving
low over Arizona, deepening convective development is ongoing in the
more strongly heated and deeply mixed environment to the west of the
dryline. As this activity begins to acquire inflow of the more
moist and increasingly unstable boundary-layer air, there appears
potential for rapid intensification during the next few hours.

The intersection of the dryline and a stalled frontal zone near/east
of Wink may provide one focus for intensifying storms. As
strengthening southeasterly low-level flow contributes to enlarged,
clockwise curved low-level hodograghs beneath seasonably strong
southerly mid/upper flow, this may include a supercell or two
accompanied by increasing risk for a tornado, possibly strong.

..Kerr.. 05/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__7AN2rdArWmRtn4nL4AT7FftQlrJCajEM_wWFJymzMqAPGTPBGX-IF7frOGfayFG9gKjBMLN= t6ja-6nH2hLwNlP6Zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32410333 31810215 31360183 30560242 30580287 30850303
31320354 32410333=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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