ACUS11 KWNS 052207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052207=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...

Valid 052207Z - 060000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold
front/outflow boundary will continue to see periods of
intensification to severe limits through early evening across
eastern North Carolina and into far southeast Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, discrete/semi-discrete cells across
eastern NC and southeast VA have shown a slight downturn in overall
intensity and organization based on reflectivity
structure/intensity, MRMS echo top/vertical ice metrics, and
cloud-top temperatures. For cells developing along an eastward
propagating, storm motions along/slightly behind the boundary are
likely responsible for this trend. Regardless, the overall
convective environment across NC and southeast VA remains favorable
for organized convection. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates continue
to show MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg and surface-based lifted
indices between -6 to -8 C across parts of eastern NC ahead of the
boundary. Additionally, the MHX VWP continues to sample deep-layer
shear on the order of 40 knots. GOES visible imagery shows agitated
cumulus along and ahead of the boundary, suggesting that new cell
development remains possible. The expectation for the next couple of
hours is that ongoing convection may see an uptick in intensity as
it pushes east/northeast further into the buoyant air mass, and new
convection may develop along/ahead of the boundary across eastern NC
with an attendant hail/wind risk.

..Moore.. 05/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Yd_hf2vDqcObueyDKj74ebssVuKw7IE8fHcbS9wmg6qQ7Wmch4PJLr74r61tsN97RXQFEdlP= pLcbGUH-jchAn7bK54$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34897850 35687776 36467734 36807736 36987730 37157697
37057651 36797615 36557602 36377605 36047615 35637643
35177684 34527759 34417789 34397813 34457836 34627857
34897850=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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