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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0701

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 5 21:30:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 052130
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052129=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-052330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0701
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0429 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 052129Z - 052330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving north out of southeast Virginia will
    migrate into a buoyant air mass in place across the DelMarVa region. Re-intensification is expected and may result in an uptick in the
    severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is being considered to
    address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete thunderstorms and weakly
    organized linear segments continues to migrate north out of
    southeast VA. While a few stronger cores persist, much of the
    convection currently appears weak/disorganized based on GOES IR
    imagery and MRMS vertical ice/echo top data. However, these storms
    are moving into an environment characterized by better buoyancy
    (MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg) that is in place across the DelMarVa
    region. Consequently, some uptick in intensity is anticipated within
    the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer wind shear sampled by regional VWPs
    is fairly modest - around 20-25 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this
    should be sufficient for a few organized cells and linear segments
    capable of producing damaging winds and 1.0 to 1.5 inch hail.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 05/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Sngb45cuLCHd1XnL56CV6zEUDv7lCTaAQfcI_uArC-qJs5R91z-IHdoj0KcoKngw8lfnaSMo= csvLEDRabOA5_7WRLQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37687760 38617858 39057882 39307881 39677865 39997827
    40077798 40057760 39837722 39257636 38867603 38407592
    38117592 37777606 37557624 37357656 37357685 37467726
    37687760=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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