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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0700

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 5 20:49:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 052048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052048=20
    TXZ000-052215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0700
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...

    Valid 052048Z - 052215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 225. Large hail remains the main concern, but a tornado could
    still occur if a supercell can become surface based.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have developed across
    southeast Texas, and have been progressing eastward on the immediate
    cool side of a baroclinic zone. These supercells are likely still
    elevated, and given adequate buoyancy above 700 mb (per RAP forecast soundings), severe hail could still occur given elongated mid to
    upper-level hodographs and corresponding 50+ kts of effective bulk
    shear. Closer to the Gulf Coast, multiple thunderstorms continue to
    intensify within a WAA regime. These storms are associated with a
    relatively more unstable, surface-based airmass. Regional VADs on
    the warm side of the baroclinic boundary show low-level hodographs
    with modest size and curvature, with around 300 m2/s2 SRH present
    (per 19Z mesoanalysis). It is unclear if these storms can organize
    and intensify into mature surface-based supercells before reaching
    the cool side of the baroclinic boundary. If they do though, a
    tornado remains possible.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9S42yx9CSFgmPcbw6BRa02WUC7X0sN-vdKtu4asgcAts7CRw9l7mrd-B7i778mMhuYTNbAro5= P2NrVgo09IrofWlNh0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28649649 29699684 30299679 30719650 30779603 30489538
    29969505 29509497 29139500 28909533 28719573 28599604
    28649649=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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