ACUS11 KWNS 051916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051916=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western South
Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051916Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of hail
may occur with the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat
should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular high-based convection has developed along
a cold front, atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 8-9.5
C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, over the SD/WY border. As the boundary
layer further destabilizes, additional pulse-cellular and multicell
storms should form along the cold front through the afternoon. Given
a dry boundary layer, evaporative cooling via the stronger storm
cores will promote some potential for severe gusts. With mid-level
lapse rates also approaching 8 C/km amid marginal vertical wind
shear, an instance of severe hail also cannot be ruled out. With the
severe threat likely remaining isolated, a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55TFt4CudYlVU_srN-oYvfKQl4_bSzHyp75iMF_2dbflLxfEUzdDF0KLqm-p1JvjcWexhstFE= w8btGJbAMdyVIExDOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 43050607 44340454 45140387 46640203 46930114 46480038
43660143 43610153 43110352 42790535 43050607=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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