ACUS11 KWNS 042312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042312=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-050115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...Western PA...northern WV...western MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042312Z - 050115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Several cells have recently intensified within an arc
of convection extending from northern WV into western PA, in the
vicinity of a low-level confluence zone. This convection is likely
being aided by an embedded midlevel vorticity maximum moving
northward around the periphery of the mid/upper cyclone over the
OH/TN Valleys. Modest heating and cool temperatures aloft have
allowed for MLCAPE to increase to the 500-1000 J/kg range, within a
modestly sheared environment.=20

Occasional organized cells will remain possible this evening, posing
a localized threat of hail and strong wind gusts. A favorable
overlap of low-level instability and vorticity could also result in
brief tornado potential, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization
commences later tonight.

..Dean/Smith.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-fdgEK5ungzUs-ixReE16SPsbKch8yRQYb4VTHS5N-H9F-6nXRKLeqau8XUvBM77YkIajWNrO= fyRpJwmOoqINEQ7cLc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 41108002 39388036 38848047 38718042 38747995 39177929
39347907 39697861 40237844 41067879 41237917 41247951
41108002=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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