ACUS11 KWNS 041816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041816=20
NCZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041816Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust threat may accompany the
stronger storms today, and an instance or two of hail cannot be
ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
along a confluence zone in southern NC per latest MRMS mosaic radar
imagery and visible satellite. Surface temperatures remain
relatively cool given considerable cloud cover. However, surface
dewpoints are in the upper 60s to 70 F, which is supporting marginal
buoyancy in spots (i.e. 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). A southwesterly 500 mb
jet max is glancing by the Carolina Piedmont to the west,
contributing to 35 kts of effective bulk shear ahead of the
developing/ongoing storms. As such, any storms that can take
advantage of locally higher pockets of buoyancy may intensify enough
to produce a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple instances
of marginally severe hail. Nonetheless, the overall sparse nature of
the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9zL0SuaAN07GuNXP6gd93ni0gemwVjy9dSQcrECNR-qgxmcxOHLrbMol23TAlS5QSVhLZOIyB= LvmGYun0gpEG9pt1Cw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33897829 33927847 34097866 34397876 35127836 35467811
36387709 36397642 36087578 35507584 34977625 34737691
34387757 34077782 33897793 33897829=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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