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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0677

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 4 10:48:23 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 041048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041047=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-041345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0677
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041047Z - 041345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado,
    cannot be ruled out over eastern North Carolina and eventually into
    far southeast Virginia.

    DISCUSSION...A line of convection with wind shift continues to push
    east, now completely out of SC and over eastern NC. Earlier, a 50 kt
    gust was measured near North Myrtle Beach.=20

    In addition to the narrow north-south line of convection, other
    storms have developed ahead of the line. These storms have shown
    periodic weak mesocyclones. Other storms continue to show
    near-severe inbound velocities mainly over the water, but this
    activity may eventually move inland.

    The air mass is marginally unstable, but sufficient for isolated
    severe reports this morning. Low-level SRH with 0-1 km values of
    100-150 m2/s2 will continue to favor rotation within the stronger
    storms, though any tornado risk should remain low-end in nature.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ajbO0c8-MoxwmkphjD6Y_wjyVnvsgMBQhezOp_yJxyZ3WkuyoOOmrfSclRZEWPviMeyhdv53= 8Oc5LvJN29ol-GQ2aY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34287759 34747770 35277766 35727769 36237777 36527764
    36767746 36937694 37027655 36907623 36587595 36127580
    35557602 34707651 34217694 34087732 34287759=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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