ACUS11 KWNS 040215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040214=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-040415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Georgina into western South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

Valid 040214Z - 040415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist downstream of WW 221
into northeast Georgia and western South Carolina. However,
continued nocturnal stabilization should limit the coverage of this
threat.

DISCUSSION...A well-balanced squall line continues to push east
across northern GA and far western SC. Additionally, a timeseries of
the KCAE VWP depicts low-level warm advection increasing as
south/southwesterly 925-850 mb flow overspreads a residual cold pool
in place across SC. This is providing sufficient lift for discrete
cells ahead of the line from far eastern GA into SC. MRMS echo
tops/vertically integrated liquid and GOES IR imagery all suggest
that this convection is not overly robust; however, a residual
pocket of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE resides immediately downstream of
the squall line and within the zone of warm-advection ascent. Given
the strong low-level shear in place across the region (roughly 30
knots of 0-1 km BWD), local surges within the line may continue to
support swaths of damaging winds and/or brief circulations. Based on
recent HRRR solutions, this potential may linger through 06 UTC into
central SC. Transient supercells within the warm advection regime
may also pose a large hail/damaging wind threat. Continued diurnal cooling/stabilization should limit the coverage of these threats and
make watch issuance downstream of WW 221 unlikely at this time.

..Moore.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Lfmjw-4JfvE5hSK_uxIEjnbPnaB7hViMrFum4_b8xmH8tQ6D83W-IEUneMqAISBmV4vC3rY_= _gIGWUSD2br36iofm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33228408 33728348 34248302 34698277 35018268 35128253
35218207 35198154 35138098 35058083 34538064 34188074
33718112 33308166 33108224 32928328 32838374 32828397
32868415 33008423 33138420 33228408=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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