ACUS11 KWNS 032246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032246=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Areas affected...parts of nern MD...nrn DE...sern Pa...wrn/cntrl NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219...220...

Valid 032246Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219, 220
continues.

SUMMARY...A small organizing cluster of storms may pose increasing
potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts across the
Harrisburg PA vicinity into areas near/northwest of Philadelphia
through 8-9 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Within a modestly heated and well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by 20-25+ F surface temperature/dew points spreads and
CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, scattered vigorous thunderstorm
development continues. This is generally focused within weak
surface troughing, beneath difluent upper flow across the northern
Mid Atlantic vicinity.=20=20

Deep-layer shear is moderately strong beneath 40 kt
south-southwesterly flow around 500 mb, and this continues to
support at least one isolated supercell now moving into the Greater Philadelphia area, accompanied by potential for marginally severe
hail and locally strong surface gusts.

Upstream, convection has consolidated into a small organizing
cluster to the north and northwest of the Greater Washington
D.C./Baltimore metro area. This activity could still pose
increasing potential to produce produce strong to severe surface
gusts while propagating across the Harrisburg vicinity and areas
near/northwest of the Greater Philadelphia area through 00-01Z.

..Kerr.. 05/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wMcumbKlPwwmFr52fxgErhlVHvmnUylaW2HVXwScNKu_VMRlstj4-Yv5WGiJsXNLrgpT6N0w= D_FelgVML14S3qzpcw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40167690 40597569 40697461 40237443 39777494 39587568
39097704 39557705 40167690=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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