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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0664

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 3 15:59:16 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 031559
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031558=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-031800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0664
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1058 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

    Areas affected...the western Carolinas and southwest VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031558Z - 031800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and small to marginal severe
    hail threat should develop across parts of the western Carolinas
    into southwest Virginia this afternoon. Uncertainty exists over the
    degree of severe-storm coverage and intensity for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Initial shower development is underway across the
    western Carolinas and should be the primary corridor of isolated to
    scattered storms this afternoon. This activity is within more muted boundary-layer heating with greater insolation/warmth eastward in
    the Piedmont to Coastal Plain. With weak mid-level lapse rates, it
    may take a few hours for cells to intensify to marginal severe
    levels. Amid a fairly unidirectional, south-southwesterly wind
    profile, storms may eventually spread towards steeper low-level
    lapse rates over the Piedmont. Primary severe threat is expected
    from localized strong gusts to around 60 mph producing isolated
    damaging winds.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72Jx-5muEIkHYCsOxhoDbBxYEqxSRMM-TjjGLYvYHHpBu7gwNSNo5L1D_TC2xD0F8zG9Ylikn= Bu6Fb6n1dkEB--zGZc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 37398016 37497956 37337912 36377943 34658023 33938090
    33798147 34438184 35208198 36258137 37048061 37398016=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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