ACUS11 KWNS 022235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022235=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...mid/upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...212...

Valid 022235Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211, 212
continues.

SUMMARY...A renewed intensification of thunderstorms, after some
weakening, still appears possible into early evening, accompanied by
a risk for strong to severe wind gusts as activity advances
southeastward toward coastal areas.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development along/ahead of the
slowly southward advancing cold front continues to merge with
convection developing along outflow surging northwestward across the
coastal plain, now roughly along a corridor extending from near
Lufkin into the San Antonio vicinity. Substantive cooling of cloud
tops has been occurring, but unstable inflow into ongoing convection
is becoming at least temporarily disrupted.

The boundary layer across the mid/upper coastal plain remains
seasonably moist and potential unstable. Beneath a difluent upper
regime, and 35-45+ kt westerly mid-level flow, increasing
southeasterly inflow of this airmass into the updrafts of the
consolidating convection might still support renewed convective
intensification within the next few hours. At the same time,
entrainment of initially dry mid-level air may contribute to further strengthening of downdrafts and increasing potential for strong to
severe surface gusts, as convection begins to propagate toward
coastal areas. Already several gusts approaching severe limits have
recently been observed along the corridor of consolidating
convection.

..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8tNcl8VdkwK2g5lGPskZWzHk8gYn0R807X3E1Eh63X26n77n4YqZdyIzD71CxFEjAFwCRGXqb= Q1HRadoHH8rSp6pTkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29989808 30699650 31459494 31739397 31079258 29729389
29049522 28559744 29029851 29989808=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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