ACUS11 KWNS 022143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022142=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania into central New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210...

Valid 022142Z - 022345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail and damaging wind threat may persist into
northern Pennsylvania and adjacent portions of New York through
00-01 UTC, but downstream watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms over western PA and far
western NY has generally shown signs of weakening over the past 1-2
hours via warming cloud top temperatures. However, a few cells
remain fairly robust and will continue to pose a severe hail and
damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours. Downstream of
this activity, the environment remains supportive of robust
convection with MLCAPE estimates to be between 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer wind shear on the order of 30 knots as sampled
by regional VWPs. Additionally, low-level lapse rates remain between
7-8 C/km across northern PA into NY. This thermodynamic/kinematic
environment should continue to promote an isolated damaging wind
threat as storms migrate out of WW 210 and into northern PA/NY
between 22-00 UTC. The onset of nocturnal cooling will quickly begin
to hinder the thermodynamic environment after 00 UTC, which should
result in an increasingly isolated/sporadic severe threat through
the remainder of the evening.

..Moore.. 05/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VnEQLYSRv68PJEFqTXbXCLHhKkpQzpkV7GpD97E0X5tJp0MWBxSSZRwc6pZMjBMGWUbfUUx7= _JqSVnFGVE_SKz_S60$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40748046 41727949 42317830 42897567 42767499 42397451
42007442 41527467 41127517 40947595 40368002 40468034
40748046=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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