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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0653

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 19:07:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021906
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021905=20
    TXZ000-022030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0205 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

    Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212...

    Valid 021905Z - 022030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 212. Large hail is currently the main threat, though a couple
    of severe gusts and a tornado are also possible. The best chance for
    a tornado exists with supercell structures that are attempting to
    mature along an outflow boundary.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are
    developing or are underway across portions of central into southern
    Texas. Multiple storms are attempting to mature along a southward
    surging cold front in central TX, with supercells also developing
    along a residual outflow boundary from earlier storms over central
    into southern TX. The greatest short-term threat for severe,
    including the possibility for a tornado or instance of 2+ inch
    diameter hail, exists with the outflow-boundary supercells. Here,
    the HGX VAD profile shows an elongated hodograph with modest
    curvature in the lowest few km. The severe threat should persist
    across central into southern TX for several more hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ar-svrna1LErxMVencnmNa3gf1FheTg0MzSWJHFBOsKlbi0RCT9K-X9e39ZcRG0r2ZycWH1H= PX2813GabZbxLASQqI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30259922 31249865 32069786 32349608 31799530 31059468
    30239458 29909479 29559547 29209673 28939744 28909786
    29079842 29469888 30259922=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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