ACUS11 KWNS 021848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021847=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas...central and
northern Louisiana...and central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

Valid 021847Z - 022045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 211. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and transient
supercells have oscillated in intensity across portions of far
eastern TX into central MS over the past few hours, with a few
reports of marginal severe hail received. These storms continue to
progress eastward into a moderately unstable airmass (i.e. 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively weak deep-layer shear. As such, the
expectation is for multicellular clusters to continue fluctuating in
strength through the afternoon, with strong/damaging gusts and large
hail possible with a subset of storms at the peak of their
intensity.

..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-YZcdUkYGStH4psHbN919hebaF0hJSH0uubgbTOoQyS6NWsv0M53tYpnLRdNNVg5B-RqAd7W9= d1kDhdD9MljlAHhEhE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31459480 32689225 33809018 33708866 33088844 32288929
31169155 30759270 30619347 30739445 31459480=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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