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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0650

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 18:23:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021823
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021823=20
    TXZ000-022030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0650
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0123 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 021823Z - 022030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over portions of
    southwestern Texas through the afternoon. Supercells capable of
    producing large hail (some 2+ inch in diameter) and severe wind
    gusts are likely, and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary continues to sag
    southward as a small scale front/boundary advances from the Stockton
    Plateau. Ahead of both boundaries, the boundary layer continues to
    destabilize, with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE already in place given the
    presence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints overspread by 8-8.5 C/km
    mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis). 60-80 kts of 300 mb
    westerly flow are also beginning to overspread the international
    border given the presence of a sub-tropical jet. As such, 40-50 kts
    of effective bulk shear is in place, in tandem with the
    aforementioned buoyancy, to support the development of supercells
    this afternoon. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A few
    instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur, along with a tornado.
    A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Xbb5DCbbv4qmjddEzhdchKFHFbdjoprpkB9lseS3O6vud-rwNonVB_OCgnKvzCTl0WaaRv6x= fsVRcakfxxHrJupPw8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29590204 30380193 30980140 31220033 31209921 30609908
    29739935 29239974 29020026 29070067 29370105 29590145
    29620163 29590204=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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