ACUS11 KWNS 021543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021543=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-021745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Areas affected...OH into western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021543Z - 021745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A generally isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat
should develop this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway across
parts of west-central OH along a weak cold front that is progged to
move east through the afternoon. Additional storm formation is
expected along the front northward to Lake Erie. With only scattered
clouds ahead of the front, further boundary-layer heating will
support modest MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg later this afternoon.
Moderate west-southwesterly speed shear will favor multicell
clusters with a sporadic severe hail and damaging wind threat. Low
confidence exists for more substantial organization, rendering some
uncertainty regarding the overall coverage of severe this afternoon.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4PClT8lDOMOUDFDq684XNt3EizpKQ59tQStOdV4jWYxPIdSVvxK2TcdGr0X3lwXpRIKLbNmI= 9mX7EMLr2dm3FeKFQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 39618438 40308442 41278272 41858051 41897973 41687940
41047959 40787988 40088107 39468336 39618438=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)