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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0640

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 2 02:08:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020206=20
    PAZ000-020400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0640
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0906 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

    Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...

    Valid 020206Z - 020400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may persist for the next 1-2 hours
    across central Pennsylvania, but a general weakening trend is
    expected through 03 UTC amid the onset of nocturnal cooling.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and RAP analyses show an
    expansive cold pool in place across central PA in the wake of a
    thunderstorm cluster earlier this evening. However, VWP observations
    from KCCX continue to show strong warm advection within the lowest
    1-2 km AGL, which is not only supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of
    200-300 m2/s2, but is also maintaining modest warm/moist advection
    into the region from the south/southeast where dewpoints remain in
    the low to mid 60s. Consequently, sufficient buoyancy remains in
    place across the region to support deep convection - as evidenced by
    cooling cloud top temperatures and increasing echo tops over the
    past 30 minutes. Given sufficient (albeit limited) buoyancy and
    strong low-level wind shear, storm organization remains possible
    with an attendant threat for damaging winds in the near term across
    central PA. Beyond 03 UTC, confidence in this threat wanes as
    nocturnal cooling will continue to promote increasing low-level
    inhibition and diminishing buoyancy.

    ..Moore.. 05/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9yWRao0SAlHBqQjzTLF4-dhaqOdU5acnGrKQMdFSTu4_FDB0v_-pdVkK6PZ86UXlx97fcN4gP= nOs3qaNxS8WEIim-ng$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...

    LAT...LON 39977890 40737876 41077846 41267808 41267763 41047722
    40687715 40337716 39987738 39797769 39747837 39807876
    39977890=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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